Turkey’s Export Demand Index Rises Above Threshold in July

The Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) announced that the Export Demand Index surpassed the threshold in July 2025, marking a modest yet important improvement for the Turkish economy.

According to TİM’s statement, the index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and by 0.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 100.2. This figure represents a rise above its long-term average, suggesting renewed momentum for exporters despite economic headwinds.

Job Confidence Drives the Index Up

While Turkey has been struggling with indicators such as unemployment, inflation, consumer confidence, and industrial production, a rise in job confidence helped push the export demand index upward.

Economists highlight that confidence indicators play a crucial role in forecasting trade flows. Stronger job confidence suggests businesses expect stability in employment, which in turn supports consumer spending and export demand.

Market Resilience Strengthens

The Market Resilience Index also recorded gains. In July 2025, the index increased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 101.1.

TİM emphasized that this improvement indicates Turkish export markets are holding steady against global uncertainties. The rise above the long-term average is particularly important as it signals stronger adaptability among exporters.

Impact of Global Geopolitical Shifts

One of the factors supporting the improvement was a partial decline in global geopolitical risks.

Recent developments in international trade corridors and stabilization in certain geopolitical hotspots have eased pressure on exporters. This, combined with the rise in the export demand index, enhanced overall market resilience.

Experts underline that exporters are still navigating volatile global conditions, including fluctuating energy prices, shipping costs, and foreign currency risks, but the current upward trend offers cautious optimism.

Exporters’ Outlook for the Remainder of 2025

With the index climbing above its long-term average, Turkish exporters are entering the second half of 2025 with improved expectations.

However, analysts note that risks remain:

• Inflationary pressures continue to affect both domestic production costs and international competitiveness.

• Weak consumer confidence in key European markets could limit external demand.

• Global supply chain uncertainties, though reduced, remain a factor.

Despite these challenges, the July figures suggest that Turkey’s export sector remains resilient and adaptive.

Policy Implications

The upward shift in the Export Demand Index may influence future policy considerations:

• Support measures for exporters, such as financing opportunities and digital trade facilitation, could help sustain momentum.

• Diversification of export markets remains a priority, especially in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, to reduce dependency on traditional partners in Europe.

• The focus on value-added exports, including technology-intensive products, continues to be emphasized by policymakers and business leaders.

A Balancing Act for the Turkish Economy

While the July increase provides a positive signal, it comes amid a mixed domestic outlook. High inflation, unemployment, and declining consumer confidence remain pressing issues.

Yet, the fact that export demand and market resilience indices rose above their long-term averages shows that international markets may serve as a stabilizing factor for Turkey’s economy in the months ahead.

Signs of Stability, But Risks Remain

The July 2025 data from TİM offers a cautiously optimistic picture: export demand is strengthening, and markets are showing resilience. However, sustaining this momentum will depend on domestic economic management, as well as the evolution of global geopolitical and financial conditions.

Turkey’s exporters, therefore, find themselves at a critical juncture—balancing domestic economic challenges with promising signs of renewed demand abroad.