Turkey’s Export Climate Reaches 17-Month High

Turkey’s manufacturing export outlook brightened notably in October 2025, with the İstanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index rising to 52.4, up from 51.7 in September. This latest reading marks the most substantial monthly improvement since May 2024 and extends the streak of strengthening export conditions to 22 consecutive months.

Stronger Demand Across Major Export Partners

According to ISO’s report, the uptick in the export climate reflects revived growth momentum in several of Turkey’s top trading partners — notably Germany, the United States, and Italy, which together account for nearly one-fifth of Turkish manufacturing exports.

Germany recorded its fastest economic expansion in over two and a half years, while growth in the U.S. reached a two-month high and Italy hit its strongest pace in 19 months. The United Kingdom, Turkey’s third-largest export destination, also rebounded in October following a mild downturn in September. Among Turkey’s five biggest export markets, France was the only one to experience contraction, as its economy shrank at the sharpest rate since February.

Elsewhere in the Eurozone, Spain posted its highest production growth since early 2025, while the Netherlands maintained a solid yet moderating pace of expansion.

Middle East Growth Fuels Global Export Opportunities

Outside Europe, Saudi Arabia registered the fastest production growth among all economies surveyed in the report, outperforming Thailand and India. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates maintained vigorous economic activity, though its expansion rate slowed compared to September.

In Central and Eastern Europe, demand conditions weakened, with Romania, Poland, Kazakhstan, and the Czech Republic all reporting declines in output. Taiwan saw the sharpest production contraction, though the pace of decline was the mildest in five months, indicating early signs of stabilization.

Turkish Exporters Benefit from Global Rebound

The sustained improvement in global demand conditions is providing a welcome boost to Turkish manufacturers, who have navigated months of uneven worldwide recovery and currency fluctuations. The ISO index — where readings above 50 indicate improvement and below 50 signal deterioration — suggests that export conditions are now firmly in growth territory.

Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the findings:

“October showed clear signs that growth is strengthening in Turkey’s key export markets. This marked the most pronounced improvement in export demand conditions in around a year and a half. These positive developments are expected to support domestic manufacturers and contribute to a strong finish for the year.”

Export Outlook: A Cautious but Positive Trajectory

Analysts note that Turkey’s manufacturing exporters are benefiting from a broad-based recovery in Western economies and robust activity in Gulf markets, which helps offset softness in Eastern Europe and certain parts of Asia. As supply chains stabilize and inflationary pressures ease, the manufacturing export sector appears poised for steady performance heading into 2026.

Still, challenges remain. Weakness in certain EU economies, particularly France, highlights lingering risks associated with global demand variability and geopolitical uncertainty. However, Turkey’s diversified export base, spanning Europe, the Middle East, and North America, offers resilience against regional shocks.

The ISO Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index continues to serve as a reliable gauge of external demand strength for Turkish industry. The October rise to 52.4 suggests that the export environment is not only improving but gaining momentum, offering manufacturers a stronger platform for year-end growth.