Turkey’s Economic Outlook Improves as World Bank Revises Growth Projection
world bank
In its latest regional economic update, the World Bank upgraded Turkey’s growth forecast for 2025 from 2.6% to 3.1%, citing improved performance indicators despite ongoing global uncertainties.
According to the Europe and Central Asia Economic Update Report, Turkey’s economy is now expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. This marks a modest upward revision from the January forecast, which had predicted 2.6% growth in 2025 and a slightly higher 3.8% for 2026.
The report reflects optimism about domestic demand resilience in Turkey, even as broader regional performance shows signs of slowdown.
Regional Growth Slows in Europe, Accelerates in MENA
While Turkey’s economic outlook brightens, the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region as a whole faces deceleration. The World Bank projects regional growth of just 2.5% for both 2025 and 2026, pointing to weaker external demand and slowing growth in Russia.
In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to accelerate economically. After growing 1.9% in 2024, MENA is forecast to expand by 2.6% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. However, the report also warns of serious uncertainties driven by geopolitical conflict and volatility in global markets, which could derail this momentum.
“Long-standing conflicts in the region could reverse decades of economic progress,” the report cautioned.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Modest Growth Amid Headwinds
The Africa’s Pulse report—the World Bank’s flagship publication on the region—offered a cautiously optimistic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite global economic uncertainty and limited fiscal space, the region’s economy is expected to grow 3.5% in 2025, with growth projected to rise to 4.3% by 2027.
Key factors driving this uptick include declining inflation, currency stabilization, and rising private consumption and investment. Inflation in the region dropped from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024.
Still, the World Bank notes that this pace of growth will help reduce poverty but falls short of meeting public expectations. Risks tied to trade disruptions, regional conflicts, and climate change remain high.
