Turkey to Import Turkmen Gas via Caspian Pipeline Within Five Years
turmen gazi
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reaffirmed his commitment to the long-discussed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project, announcing that Turkey will begin importing natural gas directly from Turkmenistan via a subsea pipeline across the Caspian Sea within five years.
Speaking at the Natural Resources Summit in Istanbul, Erdoğan highlighted the strategic importance of diversifying Turkey’s energy supply routes and enhancing regional energy cooperation, reported the Turkish media.
“Since March this year, we have been supplying Turkmen gas to Turkey through the territory of Iran,” he stated, underscoring ongoing progress in regional energy connectivity.
According to the Turkish president, approximately 250 million cubic meters of natural gas have already been delivered via the Iranian transit corridor. This volume is expected to surge to 1.3 billion cubic meters by the end of 2025, reflecting the growing scale of energy cooperation between Ankara and Ashgabat.
Erdoğan’s remarks effectively reintroduce the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline into the geopolitical and energy discourse after years of technical, legal, and political obstacles. The project, which envisions laying pipelines beneath the Caspian Sea to link Turkmenistan’s vast gas reserves directly to Azerbaijan—and onward to Turkey and Europe—has long been seen as a key to reducing regional dependence on Russian energy supplies.
The revival of this ambitious initiative aligns with Ankara’s broader energy strategy of positioning Turkey as a regional energy hub, connecting resource-rich Central Asia and the Caspian basin with European markets.
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Given the risks associated with relying on Iran as a transit route, Turkey and Turkmenistan have long explored an alternative: a direct pipeline across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, which would then link to Turkey via the Southern Gas Corridor. While technically feasible, this project faces significant political and legal challenges.
The primary obstacle is the unresolved legal status of the Caspian Sea. The five littoral states—Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Russia—signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea on August 12, 2018. The convention facilitates pipeline development but leaves key legal issues unresolved, particularly the seabed delineation.
Russia and Iran have viewed a trans-Caspian pipeline as a threat to their influence over regional energy exports. Moscow, in particular, is wary of Turkmenistan increasing its gas exports to markets that bypass Russian infrastructure. Turkey consumes over 50 bcm of natural gas annually, with Russia supplying more than 40% of its needs.
Beyond geopolitical obstacles, as I discussed in one of my previous articles, the success of a trans-Caspian pipeline also depends on securing long-term financial commitments. Pipeline infrastructure requires extensive investment, and financiers typically demand supply contracts lasting at least 20 years to ensure profitability. For example, the TurkStream agreement with Russia is set to last 30 years, while the Iran-Turkey Gas Pipeline agreement spans 25 years. Without similar long-term guarantees from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, the economic feasibility of a trans-Caspian pipeline remains uncertain.
Turkey’s latest agreement with Turkmenistan represents a positive step in its quest to diversify energy imports. However, the deal remains constrained by its reliance on Iran as a transit country, which introduces both geopolitical and technical risks. The alternative—building a trans-Caspian pipeline—faces its own hurdles, particularly unresolved legal disputes and Russian opposition. Without a resolution to these issues, Turkmenistan is unlikely to emerge as a major supplier to Turkey, let alone Europe.
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