Turkey Sounds Alarm on Rapid Demographic Decline

Turkey is undergoing one of the sharpest demographic transformations in its modern history, and senior officials warn that the consequences may reverberate across the country’s economy and social structure. Speaking at the closing ceremony of the “International Symposium on the Decade of Family and Population,” Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz stated that Turkey’s total fertility rate has plunged from 2.08 in 2017 to 1.48 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1 and far under the global average of 2.25.

Yılmaz stressed that Turkey is now the fifth-fastest declining country in fertility over the past seven years, following China, South Korea, Argentina, and Kuwait. Should this trajectory continue, Turkey is expected to fall below the European Union average in fertility over the coming years.

He highlighted dramatic shifts in population structure. Turkey’s median age jumped from 24.8 in the early 2000s to 34.4 in 2024, and projections by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) suggest it will approach 40 within a decade. The proportion of citizens aged 65 and older rose from 5.7% in the early 2000s to over 10% in 2023, indicating that Turkey has officially entered the category of aging societies. If current patterns hold, the share of elderly citizens could exceed 20% within 20 years.

Youth Population Shrinks as Economic Pressure Mounts

The vice president underscored that Turkey’s youth population is steadily shrinking. Young people made up 20.5% of the population in 2000, but this rate fell to 14.9% by 2023, and may decline to just 10% within the next 20 years.

Yılmaz emphasized the importance of preserving a dynamic demographic structure to sustain Turkey’s global competitiveness. He noted that a younger population enhances economic capability, innovation, and productivity:

“The productive capacity offered by a young and dynamic population is a strategic asset that increases a country’s competitiveness. If a country is old and wealthy, it can manage. If it is young and poor, there is still hope. But if a country becomes both poor and old, this becomes a complete disaster scenario for development strategies.”

He added that projections show Turkey’s population may never reach 100 million, instead peaking at roughly 94 million in the 2050s before sliding down to around 77 million by the 2100s.

Government to Identify and Amend ‘Anti-Family and Anti-Population’ Regulations

One of the most significant announcements came when Yılmaz disclosed that the government is conducting a full-scale legal screening of Turkey’s regulatory framework. Under the coordination of the Ministry of Justice, officials will identify and modify any provisions considered to undermine demographic and family objectives:

“By reviewing all our legal regulations, if there are any provisions that are anti-family or anti-population, we are identifying them and carrying out regulatory work to transform them.”

He added that strengthening family structure is not only a domestic concern but increasingly a global agenda item, particularly as countries grapple with aging populations.

Broad Policy Toolkit: Economic Incentives, Family Support, Birth Policies

Yılmaz outlined a wide array of policy actions the government is pursuing through the Population Policies Board, which coordinates demographic planning across institutions. These include labor policies, education, communication strategies, and a series of economic incentives.

Key measures include:

• Increasing the one-time birth support to 5,000 TL

• Monthly payments of 1,500 TL for a second child until age five

• Monthly payments of 5,000 TL for a third child until age five

• Expansion of the Family and Youth Fund, offering two-year grace-period, four-year maturity interest-free marriage loans, currently at 150,000 TL, with increases planned for 2026

• Childcare support, expanded parental leave, and the spread of public daycare centers

• A new, integrated family-based social support model planned for nationwide rollout in 2027

Yılmaz also flagged an unusually high rate of C-section births in Turkey, noting that 61.2% of births occur via cesarean section, compared to an OECD average of 28%. He argued that unless medically required, this trend can negatively affect demographic dynamics:

“We do not view the use of this method positively when there is no medical necessity. We are acting with a policy that encourages normal birth.”

International Cooperation and a Long-Term National Vision

Yılmaz underlined that Turkey has designated 2025 as the ‘Year of the Family’ and 2026–2035 as the ‘Decade of Family and Population,’ signaling a long-term demographic strategy. He stated that international cooperation—especially with the Turkic and Islamic worlds—will be central to Turkey’s demographic and family-related diplomacy.

He closed his speech with a warning: once demographic structures deteriorate, reversing the trend becomes exceptionally difficult. Proactive policies, he stressed, are Turkey’s best path forward.