Turkey Redraws Its Syria Strategy: Military Support, Regional Diplomacy, and a New Role in Damascus

Turkey has taken a major strategic turn in its Syria policy, signalling a long-term commitment that goes far beyond border defense. In a striking shift, Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler announced that Ankara is now training and advising the newly formed Syrian army, while simultaneously bolstering its own defensive footprint in northern Syria.

Despite speculation, no withdrawal of the over 20,000 Turkish troops stationed across the border is on the table for now. Instead, Turkey’s posture appears increasingly structural and forward-looking, reflecting its ambitions to shape the region’s future security architecture.

From Opposition Backer to Damascus Ally

Once a backer of rebel factions, Turkey now stands as a strategic partner of the post-Assad Syrian government, which emerged after Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December 2024. The pivot illustrates Ankara’s pragmatic shift in foreign policy, prioritizing cooperation with state institutions to safeguard national interests and regional influence.

Minister Güler emphasized that a full military exit will only happen once peace is achieved, threats are neutralized, and refugees can return safely. This conditional approach underlines Turkey’s determination to stay involved until it deems the region secure.

Military, Reconstruction, and Diplomacy

Ankara’s evolving role isn’t limited to defense. Turkey has committed to support Syria’s post-war reconstruction and assist in the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees, reinforcing its position as a regional stakeholder. Moreover, alongside Saudi Arabia, Turkey has been instrumental in easing international sanctions—particularly those imposed by the U.S. and the European Union—against the new Syrian administration.

This growing footprint is part of Turkey’s broader Middle East strategy, seeking a more influential role in post-conflict regional order.

Israel Watches with Unease

The deeper cooperation between Ankara and Damascus hasn’t gone unnoticed—Israel is closely monitoring the development with growing concern. As Israeli airstrikes persist in southern Syria, Turkish and Israeli officials are engaging in technical discussions aimed at preventing direct military clashes.

Yet, Güler was quick to downplay any thawing of relations with Tel Aviv. “These are not normalization talks,” he told Reuters. “They’re purely mechanisms to prevent escalation.”

Ankara has maintained a firm stance against Israeli military actions in Gaza, making it clear that strategic dialogues won’t translate into diplomatic reconciliation anytime soon.

A New Power Equation in the Middle East

Turkey’s recalibrated Syria approach—entrenching military assets, rebuilding institutions, and managing regional rivalries—signals a calculated and ambitious regional strategy. By redefining its alliances and adapting to changing dynamics, Turkey is positioning itself as a key power broker in the Middle East.

This geopolitical realignment could have enduring implications, potentially redrawing the balance of power in the region for years to come.