Turkey Posts $5.5 Billion Current Account Surplus in August — Analysts See Gains as Temporary

Yapı Kredi and Akbank reports highlight services income and lower imports as key drivers, warn that surpluses may fade by year-end

Turkey recorded a $5.5 billion current account surplus in August 2025, broadly in line with market expectations, according to data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB). While the figure marks a strong rebound driven by tourism and lower imports, economists at Yapı Kredi Invest and Akbank caution that the improvement may prove temporary amid weaker export trends and rising energy costs.

Current Account Swings into Surplus

According to TCMB data, the current account surplus reached $5.5 billion in August, compared to a deficit of $8 billion in the same period last year.
Bloomberg’s market consensus was $5.4 billion, meaning the result came in slightly stronger than expected.

The 12-month rolling deficit narrowed to $18.3 billion from $18.9 billion in July, reflecting improving trade and service balances. However, the figure remains nearly double the $9.9 billion deficit recorded in August 2024.

The goods trade deficit also improved slightly, declining to $62.6 billion from $62.7 billion in July, though still higher than $55.6 billion a year earlier.

Tourism and Services Drive the Rebound

The strong August surplus was largely driven by services income, particularly from tourism and transportation.
Net inflows from services totaled $9.5 billion, including $7.6 billion in tourism revenues and $2.7 billion in transportation receipts — among the highest monthly levels on record.

Excluding gold, the current account showed a $6.5 billion surplus, up from $2.2 billion in July.
When both gold and energy are excluded, the balance surged to a $10 billion surplus, underscoring the strength of non-energy service exports and seasonal tourism.

Capital Flows: Modest Inflows, Portfolio Outflows

On the financing side, direct investments posted a net inflow of $986 million in August, while portfolio investments saw a net outflow of $662 million.

Foreign investors were net buyers of $279 million in equities and $1.6 billion in government bonds, but this was offset by bond sales abroad, including $337 million by banks, $940 million by the public sector, and $74 million by other private issuers.

External borrowing remained robust:

• Banks tapped $2.8 billion in net new loans,

• Non-financial corporates borrowed $1.2 billion,

• While the central government made $68 million in net repayments.

Overall, the financial account posted $1.9 billion in net inflows, bringing total year-to-date inflows to $24 billion.
However, $1.5 billion in unrecorded capital outflows were reported, extending the January–August total to $10.8 billion.
TCMB’s official reserves rose by $5.7 billion in August, after an overall $2.8 billion decline earlier in the year.

Yapı Kredi: Surplus Driven by Narrower Trade Gap and Services

Yapı Kredi Invest analysts note that the narrowing of the trade deficit was the key factor behind the current account improvement.
The August trade deficit came in at $2.8 billion, slightly lower than last year’s $2.9 billion.

The bank highlights that Turkey’s core current account indicators — excluding volatile gold and energy items — continue to improve steadily.

“The trend reflects both weaker import demand and stronger service revenues,” Yapı Kredi wrote. “The non-energy, non-gold surplus of $10 billion signals a healthier external balance entering the final quarter.”

Still, the bank warned that high-frequency trade data suggest import recovery may resume in the coming months, potentially widening the deficit again as seasonal tourism fades.

Akbank: August Surplus in Line with Estimates, But Gains to Reverse

In its macro note, Akbank said the August current account surplus of $5.5 billion was broadly consistent with its forecast of $5.1 billion and the market consensus of $5.4 billion.

The bank added that the seasonally adjusted balance maintained its positive momentum from July, with improvements in core indicators such as the non-energy, non-gold surplus, which rose to $47.5 billion on a 12-month basis.

Akbank attributed the strong August result to a narrower trade gap and robust seasonal tourism inflows.
However, it expects the trend to weaken in September, when preliminary trade data show a sharp correction in exports.

September Data Suggest Surplus is Temporary

Preliminary figures from the Trade Ministry show that Turkey’s foreign trade deficit widened to $6.9 billion in September, up by $1.7 billion from a year earlier.
The 12-month cumulative deficit also rose from $87.6 billion to $89.3 billion, suggesting that the strong July–August performance was seasonal rather than structural.

Akbank forecasts that the seasonally adjusted current account will likely return to a modest surplus of around $1 billion in September, before slipping back toward a deficit by year-end.

It now expects Turkey’s 2025 full-year current account deficit to reach $17.5 billion, compared with its previous estimate of $15 billion and the government’s Medium-Term Program (OVP) projection of $22.6 billion.

Tourism Income Hits Record High

Despite slowing visitor numbers earlier in the summer, the number of foreign tourists increased by 3.3% in August, offsetting declines seen in June and July.

Revenues from travel and transport hit new records:

• Total services income: $119.9 billion (up $0.4 billion monthly)

• Tourism income: $58.1 billion (record high)

Both categories reached their highest levels on record, according to Akbank, driven by European and Middle Eastern demand.
The bank notes that tourism’s seasonal impact on the current account balance is now the strongest in over a decade.

Outlook: Modest Improvement, but Risks Ahead

Analysts at both banks agree that Turkey’s external balance will likely deteriorate modestly toward year-end.
High energy prices, weaker European demand, and slowing domestic consumption could all weigh on exports, while tourism’s seasonal support fades.

Akbank expects the 12-month deficit to rise to $20 billion by September, before improving slightly in the final quarter.
Yapı Kredi projects a similar trend, forecasting a gradual rebalancing rather than a sustained surplus.

“The August data mark a welcome improvement,” Yapı Kredi concluded, “but the structural drivers — such as dependence on imported energy and weak export diversification — remain unchanged.”

Sources: TCMB, Yapı Kredi Invest, Akbank Research, Bloomberg, Trade Ministry

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