Turkey Home Prices Rise 28.4% Year-on-Year in November, but Fall in Real Terms: Endeksa

Turkey’s residential property prices continued to rise in nominal terms in November, according to data from real estate analytics platform Endeksa, but inflation-adjusted figures show that real prices are still declining. While annual home price growth reached 28.4%, high inflation eroded gains, resulting in a real-term contraction. Sales volumes softened year-on-year in November, although cumulative sales for the first eleven months of 2025 remained strong, supported by a sharp rebound in mortgage-financed transactions.

Turkey’s Housing Market Pins Its Hopes on 2026 as Sales Slow and Real Prices Stall

Turkey’s housing market posted further nominal price increases in November, but inflation continued to weigh on real returns, according to the November 2025 Housing Value Report released by Endeksa, a property valuation platform that uses artificial intelligence to estimate real estate prices.

Nationwide asking prices for homes rose 28.4% year-on-year in November and increased 2.7% on a monthly basis, Endeksa data showed. However, once adjusted for inflation, prices fell 2.7% in real terms compared with a year earlier, and declined 1.0% month-on-month, underlining the ongoing erosion of purchasing power in Turkey’s housing market.

The average sale price per square metre stood at 37,202 Turkish lira, while the average home price nationwide reached 4.7 million lira. Endeksa estimates the average payback period for residential property investments at 14 years, reflecting moderating rental yields and slower capital appreciation.

Housing Sales Decline in November, but 11-Month Total Rises

In terms of transaction volumes, 141,100 homes were sold across Türkiye in November, marking a 7.8% decline compared with the same month last year. The year-on-year drop highlights the impact of high borrowing costs and weakening affordability, despite continued nominal price growth.

However, the broader trend for 2025 remains positive. In the January–November period, total home sales rose 13.3% year-on-year to 1,434,133 units, indicating that housing demand has remained resilient despite tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation.

Market participants say the divergence between monthly and cumulative figures suggests that buyers may have front-loaded purchases earlier in the year, anticipating further price increases or future changes in credit conditions.

Mortgage-Financed Sales Show Strong Recovery

One of the most notable developments in the November data was the performance of mortgage-backed transactions.

Across Türkiye, mortgaged home sales fell 1.4% year-on-year in November to 21,499 units, accounting for 15.2% of total home sales during the month. While the monthly figure showed a slight decline, the broader trend points to a significant revival in housing credit.

During the January–November period, mortgage-financed sales surged 53.5% year-on-year to 207,519 units, according to Endeksa. Analysts interpret this increase as a sign that the credit channel has gradually reopened, despite still-high mortgage interest rates.

Expectations of future rate cuts have also begun to influence buyer behaviour, with some households moving ahead of anticipated easing in housing loan conditions.

Endeksa: Market Entering a More Balanced Phase

Commenting on the report, Görkem Öğüt, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Endeksa, said the data points to a gradual rebalancing in the housing market.

“Endeksa data shows that prices on both the sales and rental sides continue to rise in nominal terms, but real declines persist once inflation is taken into account,” Öğüt said.

“This indicates that the pace of price increases in the housing market is slowing and that a more balanced structure is emerging,” he added.

Öğüt noted that while November sales showed a limited slowdown compared with last year, total transactions in the first eleven months of 2025 still posted double-digit growth.

“The 53.5% increase in mortgaged home sales during this period clearly demonstrates that the credit channel has started functioning again,” he said. “With the expected decline in housing loan interest rates in the coming period, we anticipate a further increase in market activity.”

Southeastern and Black Sea Provinces Lead Price Gains

When assessing the 30 provinces with the highest number of home sales, Endeksa data shows that Diyarbakır, Samsun and Çanakkale delivered the strongest investment returns in November.

In Diyarbakır, home prices rose 48.7% year-on-year in nominal terms, translating into a 12.6% increase in real terms after adjusting for inflation. The average price per square metre in the province reached 31,143 lira, while the average home price stood at 4.8 million lira.

In Samsun, a key Black Sea port city, nominal prices increased 41.3%, corresponding to a real increase of 7.1%. The average price per square metre was recorded at 32,995 lira, with the average home price at 3.8 million lira.

Meanwhile, Çanakkale saw nominal price growth of 39.2%, while real prices rose 5.5%. The average price per square metre reached 49,093 lira, and the average home price climbed to 5.8 million lira.

Weakest Price Performance in Hatay, Muğla and Aydın

At the other end of the spectrum, provinces with the weakest price performance among the top 30 by sales volume were Hatay, Muğla and Aydın, where inflation-adjusted prices continued to fall sharply.

In Hatay, home prices rose 14.9% year-on-year in nominal terms, but fell 12.9% in real terms. The average price per square metre stood at 25,076 lira, while the average home price reached 3.8 million lira.

In Muğla, which has the highest residential property prices in Türkiye, nominal prices increased 22.1%, but real prices declined 7.5%. The average price per square metre was 77,107 lira, and the average home price reached 9.8 million lira, reflecting the region’s strong demand from high-income buyers and foreign purchasers.

Similarly, in Aydın, nominal prices rose 22.9%, but real prices dropped 6.9%. The average price per square metre was recorded at 49,224 lira, while the average home price reached 6.6 million lira.

Inflation Continues to Shape Housing Dynamics

Economists note that the ongoing divergence between nominal and real price movements remains a defining feature of Türkiye’s housing market. While headline prices continue to rise, high inflation and elevated financing costs are limiting affordability and compressing real returns.

Looking ahead, analysts say the trajectory of inflation, interest rates and mortgage accessibility will be critical in determining whether housing demand strengthens further in 2026 or remains constrained by household balance sheets.

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