Turkey Faces Record-Shattering Debt Payments in 2026

Turkey’s newly released 2026 domestic debt repayment program reveals an unprecedented challenge ahead. According to official data from the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, January and February will mark the two largest domestic debt repayment months in Turkish economic history.

Economist Alaattin Aktas, publicly evaluating the figures on social media, warned that the combined domestic debt payments for the first two months approach 1.2 trillion TL. He underscored the extraordinary scale of January’s interest burden by noting that the month reflects a level of interest expenditure never seen before.

January Sets a New Record: Over 400 Billion TL in Interest Alone

The Treasury’s data shows that January 2026 includes

• 183.1 billion TL in principal, and

• 409.3 billion TL in interest,

bringing the total to 592.4 billion TL—the highest monthly interest payment Turkey has ever recorded.

February mirrors this pattern with

• 437.7 billion TL principal,

• 153.6 billion TL interest,
  for a total of 591.3 billion TL.

Aktas notes that the structure of debt repayment remains unchanged: a large portion of maturing debt is financed through new borrowing, meaning the debt stock does not decline. According to his assessment, this rollover dependency will remain a key feature of 2026.

The Hidden Driver: CPI-Indexed Bonds and Years of Accumulated Inflation

A widely followed economic analysis account known as “507” offered additional insight into why the January interest figure is so high. Their breakdown shows that the surge is not the result of a sudden spike in nominal rates, but rather the delayed cost of CPI-indexed government bonds maturing.

According to the analysis:

• CPI-indexed bonds carry very low coupon rates,

• Their cost rises through inflation adjustments added to the principal over time,

• High inflation in recent years has caused these adjustments to balloon,

• And when the bonds mature, the accumulated inflation difference is paid out at once, producing an outsized “interest” payment.

In short, January’s massive interest line is the financial result of years of elevated inflation, not a reflection of interest rates themselves.

“507” further explained that during the period when real interest rates were profoundly negative, the government borrowed “cheaply” on paper. But the underlying cost later surfaced as inflationary surges, currency pressure, and accumulated obligations. Their evaluation stresses that the core issues lie in credit expansion, large budget deficits, and deferred fiscal costs, not merely in the interest rate tool itself.

A Tough Road Ahead: Heavy Monthly Repayments Through the Entire Year

The Treasury’s projections show that this burden is not confined to early 2026. The following months also feature substantial domestic debt repayments:

• March: 353 billion TL

• April: 413.3 billion TL

• May: 293.7 billion TL

• June: 404.2 billion TL

The second half of the year continues at a similar intensity, with notable peaks such as:

• July: 471.3 billion TL

• August: 560 billion TL

Economists agree that 2026 will be another year of rising debt stock because the overall funding model relies heavily on refinancing rather than reducing obligations. As inflation dynamics, fiscal pressures, and the legacy of previous borrowing intersect, the Treasury faces one of the most challenging debt management environments of the last decade.

The Broader Implication: Delayed Costs Are Now Surfacing

The 2026 program illustrates a deeper structural narrative: years of high inflation, suppressed real rates, and postponed fiscal risks are converging into a single repayment cycle. This creates a landscape in which nominal improvements may appear in select macro indicators, yet consumer and market sentiment remain cautious.

Turkey begins 2026 not only with heavy numbers on paper, but also with a debt ecosystem shaped by past decisions, now manifesting as record monthly repayments.