Trump Weighs F-35 Deal to Incentivize Turkey’s Support for Israel-Syria Normalization

Strategic realignment could hinge on Erdogan’s stance toward Israel, Syria, and Russia’s S-400s—Washington eyes regional breakthrough tied to F-35 fighter jet program.

U.S. President Donald Trump may link the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support for normalizing ties between Israel and Syria, according to diplomatic sources and regional officials.

As relations between Israel and Syria begin to thaw, Washington is pushing for a historic agreement that could see the regime of Ahmed al-Sharaa join the Abraham Accords-style normalization framework. To help break the diplomatic logjam, Trump is reportedly considering lifting the ban on F-35 sales to Turkey—a move that could dramatically alter the military balance in the region and test U.S.-Israel relations.

“All sides know it’s just a matter of time before Turkey is brought back into the F-35 project,” said a senior Greek official quoted by Globes. “Greece and Israel are lobbying to delay it, but the momentum is shifting.”

U.S. Ambassador: F-35 Impasse Could Be Resolved by Year-End

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Burke confirmed over the weekend that talks are underway to resolve long-standing obstacles to Turkey’s reentry into the F-35 fighter program, from which it was removed in 2019 after purchasing Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.

Speaking to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency, Burke stated:

“F-35, F-16, S-400, sanctions, tariffs—this has been going on for five years. Enough. It’s time to revisit the issue, and Congress wants to do so.”

Any resolution would require Congressional approval to lift CAATSA sanctions, which prohibit U.S. defense cooperation with nations procuring Russian military hardware.

The S-400 Question: Erdogan Readies Public for Retreat

While Turkey has so far refused to deactivate its S-400s—reportedly purchased from Russia for $2.5 billion—Ankara may now be exploring face-saving options to offload or relocate the systems, possibly to Syria.

According to Turkish media and government insiders, Erdogan is laying the groundwork domestically for such a move. Citing recent lessons from Israel’s successful strikes against Iran, Erdogan told the public:

“Our society now understands that the S-400s do not fully meet our national needs. We must build a multi-layered air defense system.”

Strategic Calculations: U.S. Military Footprint in Turkey

Washington’s incentive to repair ties with Turkey extends beyond F-35s. The U.S. operates key military infrastructure on Turkish soil, including the Incirlik Air Base, which stores nuclear weapons, and the Kurecik radar installation, which plays a strategic role in regional air defense, including during the Israel-Iran conflict.

Allowing Turkey back into the F-35 program may help anchor Ankara more firmly in the Western defense alliance, while reducing its dependence on Russian technology and influence.

Turkey’s KAAN Project May Face Uncertainty

If F-35 sales resume, observers say it could cast doubt on Turkey’s domestic fifth-generation jet program, KAAN, which is still under development and expected to become operational in the next decade. The U.S. stealth jet would offer superior capabilities in the near term, potentially sidelining KAAN’s relevance and strategic value.

Israel-Syria Normalization: Erdogan as the Missing Piece?

Trump’s br

oader Middle East strategy includes expanding the Abraham Accords framework, and Turkey’s cooperation is seen as pivotal to sealing a normalization deal between Israel and Syria.

The challenge lies in domestic opposition inside Turkey, particularly due to pro-Palestinian sentiment among Erdogan’s political base. Turkey was among the most vocal critics of the original Abraham Accords in 2020, attacking the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco for recognizing Israel.

Should Turkey now facilitate Syria’s inclusion in the normalization process, Ankara will face scrutiny over the apparent reversal—and will likely need diplomatic cover or tangible incentives like the F-35 deal.

Refugee Repatriation Tied to Regional Peace Efforts

Erdogan is also motivated by domestic pressure to reduce Turkey’s Syrian refugee population, currently estimated at over three million. As part of its interest in stabilizing post-war Syria under a new regime in Damascus, Turkey hopes to encourage voluntary refugee returns, particularly as economic challenges mount.

More than 300,000 Syrians have returned home since the December coup that brought al-Sharaa to power, according to Turkish state data.

A Balancing Act

While Turkey remains critical of Israeli military power, senior Turkish officials privately express alignment with U.S. and Israeli objectives to contain Iran and stabilize Syria.

“We don’t understand why Israel doesn’t see that our interests are aligned—especially in preventing Iran from regaining influence in post-Assad Syria,” one senior Turkish official told Al-Monitor.

Whether Erdogan can walk this diplomatic tightrope—trading Russian weapons for U.S. fighter jets while backing a Syrian regime friendly to Israel—may determine not just the fate of F-35s, but also the strategic architecture of the Middle East in Trump’s second term.

International  Press Sources

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