Three New Polls: İmamoğlu Leads Erdoğan in Presidential Race – Will He Be Released?

As Turkey’s political climate grows more turbulent following the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, three recent public opinion surveys indicate a strong lead for the opposition candidate in a hypothetical presidential election. The findings shed light on public attitudes toward İmamoğlu’s legal troubles, his popularity across the political spectrum, and how voters perceive the chances of his release under the current government.

ALF Research: İmamoğlu Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Erdoğan

According to ALF Research’s May 2025 report titled “Turkey’s Voter Panorama,” jailed Istanbul Mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu commands a clear lead over incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The poll, conducted between May 1–10 with 3,920 respondents, posed a simple question: “If the presidential election were held this Sunday, who would you vote for?”

The result? İmamoğlu received 50.5% of the vote, defeating Erdoğan in the first round by a margin of 10.7 percentage points. The findings are notable not only because of the scale of İmamoğlu’s support but because they suggest he could win outright without the need for a runoff.

ALF also analyzed the source of İmamoğlu’s support. The data indicates that more than half of voters from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, nationalist Zafer Party, center-right İYİ Party, and leftist Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) would vote for İmamoğlu, suggesting he is succeeding in building a cross-ideological coalition.

KONDA: İmamoğlu’s Support Continues to Rise

A second poll, conducted by KONDA and shared by journalist Ekrem Açıkel on Halk TV, confirms İmamoğlu’s growing popularity. In this survey, İmamoğlu receives 43% of the vote to Erdoğan’s 33%, showing a significant 10-point lead.

KONDA emphasized in its internal notes that İmamoğlu’s numbers have been steadily increasing over the past few months, despite his ongoing imprisonment and the legal proceedings targeting Istanbul’s city government.

Importantly, the same survey asked citizens for their opinion on the potential consequences of another Erdoğan presidency. A striking 67% said it would be “bad for Turkey” if Erdoğan were to win another term.

KONDA also tested public perception about the legal investigations into İmamoğlu and the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB). According to the data, 62% of respondents said they do not believe the accusations against İmamoğlu, reflecting widespread skepticism about the government’s intentions.

Türkiye Raporu: Majority Says İmamoğlu Should Be Released, But Doubt It Will Happen Under AKP

The third poll, conducted by Türkiye Raporu between May 2–6 with a sample of 2,000 people, looked into public opinion regarding İmamoğlu’s imprisonment and potential for release.

The results indicate that 60% of respondents believe İmamoğlu should be tried without being held in detention. This view spans political divides and underscores a sense of unease about judicial fairness in Turkey.

More telling, however, is the response to a more specific question: “Do you think İmamoğlu will be released while the AKP remains in power?”

Two out of every five respondents said “no,” asserting that as long as the ruling party retains power, İmamoğlu will not be released. This sentiment hints at growing public distrust in the judiciary’s independence and suggests that many see İmamoğlu’s case as politically motivated.

Only 20% of respondents believe İmamoğlu will be released following the next general election. Meanwhile, 14% believe he could be released after his first court hearing. A sizeable 24% of participants said they had no opinion or were unsure.

A Politically Charged Judicial Battle

These three surveys offer a revealing snapshot of the political landscape just weeks after İmamoğlu’s arrest sent shockwaves through the country. Taken together, they suggest:

• İmamoğlu is currently the strongest challenger to Erdoğan, with a high potential for securing victory in the first round of a presidential vote.

• His support base spans multiple parties and ideological lines, suggesting a broad-based appeal.

• A clear majority of the Turkish public believes he is being unfairly detained and should be released.

• Many voters doubt that release will come while the AKP remains in power.

These developments place immense pressure on Erdoğan, whose government is already facing mounting criticism over democratic backsliding and judicial overreach. They also raise the stakes for the upcoming elections, which are likely to become a referendum not just on Erdoğan’s leadership, but on the rule of law in Turkey.

As İmamoğlu’s legal battle continues, the opposition is preparing to turn public outrage into political momentum. Whether this will be enough to end Erdoğan’s decades-long grip on power remains to be seen—but for now, the numbers are on the opposition’s side.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

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