Syrian Worker Exodus Disrupts Turkish Labor Market as Businesses Brace for Impact

Along the bustling coastal city of Mersin, Syrian-owned stores like Al Zein Clothing, known for modest wear, are closing their doors. Owners and employees are preparing to return to Syria, marking a broader shift already reshaping Turkey’s labor market and economy.

In Gaziantep, a major economic hub near the Syrian border, businessman Hussein al-Marandi has witnessed a growing labor gap. “There’s a shortage,” he says, as Syrian workers return home following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Of the 20 Syrians he employs, three have already left—and more plan to go after Eid al-Adha in June.

Al-Marandi, who runs Almarandi Housewares and sits on the Gaziantep Chamber of Commerce, emphasized the importance of Syrian labor: efficient, dependable, low-cost, and with minimal legal red tape. Their departure is prompting anxiety among Turkish businesses, many of which are now reluctant to hire Syrians due to fears of sudden exits.

Turkey’s Department of Migration reports a decline in Syrians under temporary protection—from 3.1 million to 2.8 million in a year. According to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, more than 200,000 Syrians have returned since December 2024.

Businesses Relocate and Adapt

Across southern Turkey, especially in Mersin, many Syrian entrepreneurs are closing shops, liquidating inventory, and relocating. Ali Hijazi, who once ran a 12-person food business in Mersin, moved to Aleppo within a week after his sales dropped by 95%. He launched al-Ward Trading Company, importing household goods from Turkey, China, and Dubai.

Yet, returning isn’t easy. Hijazi faces transportation fees, high customs duties (about $1,000 per ton), lack of government support, and crumbling infrastructure. Still, he notes that Syrian workers were essential to sectors like construction, agriculture, and services—and their absence is already leaving a void.

Some firms, like Nur Muzaiek Trading, are straddling both countries. The company is maintaining its Mersin branch while opening operations in Syria, aiming to strengthen trade ties.

Rising Labor Shortages

Turkey was already grappling with labor shortages in agriculture, textiles, and construction. The return of Syrians is worsening the situation. In Istanbul, Balbin Textile lost 40–50% of its workforce during last summer’s wave of anti-Syrian sentiment, significantly dropping production.

Still, Labor Minister Vedat Işıkhan downplayed any immediate economic threat but acknowledged a government-led study involving 16,000 businesses across 17 sectors is ongoing.

Economist Radwan al-Dibs criticized Ankara’s lack of a long-term strategy for retaining Syrian labor, citing missed opportunities to simplify work permits and improve mobility. The government, he argued, is facilitating returns rather than integration.

Factory owners are already feeling the effects: production cuts, factory closures, and a 20–50% increase in labor costs due to the shift to more expensive Turkish workers. The textile sector, where Syrians made up 20% of the workforce, is particularly vulnerable.

Agricultural and Real Estate Effects

Syrians and Afghans account for 80% of Turkey’s agricultural workforce, especially in livestock. Ahmet Eyyupoğlu from the Union of Agricultural Chambers warned that losing foreign labor could cripple the industry.

Meanwhile, areas in Istanbul are seeing rent prices drop and building vacancies rise. Private schools reliant on Syrian students are closing branches, facing financial strain.

Economist Alaa Hammami estimates around 11,000 Syrians return daily, driving up wages in some sectors by 20–30%. He predicts 2,000 to 3,000 Syrian businesses could shut down in Turkey within a year, raising inflation and production costs.

The government’s National Employment Strategy 2028 aims to respond by identifying labor gaps, attracting Turkish talent from abroad, and potentially recruiting from Central Asia and Africa.

Hammami suggests Ankara could still grant long-term work permits or facilitate dual movement to stabilize the market.

For al-Marandi, the future remains uncertain. He hopes Turkey recognizes the value Syrians brought. As Hijazi reflects, “If we could help grow the Turkish economy, we can also rebuild our own.”