Sudan’s civil war deepens: RSF seizes El-Fasher, death toll passes 150,000 as Egypt and Turkey move to back the army

Sudan’s civil war—triggered in April 2023 by a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—has escalated into the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. The RSF now controls nearly all of Darfur after capturing El-Fasher, raising fears of ethnic cleansing and possible genocide. More than 150,000 people have died, and 12 million have been displaced. The U.S. has officially accused the RSF of genocide, while Egypt and Turkey have begun supporting the Sudanese army to prevent the war from spilling across borders.

A power struggle that turned into a nation-wide war

Sudan plunged into civil war after months of tension between:

• Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan – commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

• Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”) – leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

Both generals previously worked together during the 2021 coup, which toppled a short-lived civilian transitional government. Their alliance collapsed when they clashed over plans to integrate the RSF into the national army.

On 15 April 2023, gunfire erupted in Khartoum.
What began as a dispute over chain of command turned into a nationwide war.

Who are the RSF?

• Formed in 2013 from the Janjaweed militias, accused of genocide in Darfur in the 2000s.

• Led by Hemedti, who controls large gold mines and is accused of smuggling gold to the UAE.

• According to regional intelligence reporting, RSF receives support from:

  • United Arab Emirates (UAE) (weapons and logistics)

  • Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar (arms routes through Libya)

RSF fighters have operated in conflicts outside Sudan, including Yemen and Libya, and now control most of Darfur and parts of Kordofan.

El-Fasher falls — a turning point in the war

In October 2025, the RSF overran El-Fasher, the last major urban center in Darfur not under its control.
For months, RSF forces besieged the city, blocking food supplies and destroying the nearby Zamzam displacement camp already suffering from famine.

The fall of El-Fasher gives the RSF:

• Near-total control of Darfur

• Key smuggling and trade routes linked to Libya and Chad

• Leverage to declare a rival government and potentially push Sudan toward partition

Humanitarian agencies estimate 250,000 civilians in El-Fasher remain trapped, facing starvation and systematic attacks.

Is Sudan witnessing a genocide?

Evidence of targeted ethnic violence has mounted.

Human Rights Watch reports that the RSF and allied militias have systematically attacked non-Arab ethnic groups—especially the Massalit community—in Darfur.

• Mass killings in El-Geneina and other cities

• Use of rape and sexual violence “to terrorize and expel”

• Statements from perpetrators using racial slurs such as “we will give you Arab babies”

In January, the United States formally determined that genocide is taking place, stating that RSF fighters:

“Murdered men and boys on an ethnic basis and targeted women and girls for sexual violence.”
— U.S. Secretary of State (January 2025)

RSF leadership has been sanctioned.
Sudan’s government filed a case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of enabling genocide. The ICJ declined to take jurisdiction.

What territory does the army still control?

• Northern and eastern Sudan

• Port Sudan on the Red Sea — now the seat of Sudan’s UN-recognized government

• Most of Gezira state, retaken from the RSF

After losing El-Fasher, the army’s main strategic concern is preventing the RSF from advancing toward Omdurman and retaking the capital region.

Egypt and Turkey escalate involvement

A Middle East Eye investigation reveals that both Egypt and Turkey are now actively supporting the Sudanese army.

Egypt:

• Reinforced military positions on the Sudanese and Libyan borders

• Working on a joint operations command with SAF in North Kordofan

• Conducting continuous air reconnaissance

“The RSF’s growing power threatens Egypt’s border security.”
— Egyptian military intelligence source (MEE)

Turkey:

• Supplying drones, command systems, and missiles since 2024

• Increasing support after atrocities in El-Fasher

“The pogroms in El-Fasher only strengthened our resolve.”
— Senior Turkish security official (MEE)

Ankara and Cairo—normally geopolitical rivals—are now coordinating to contain RSF advances.

The world’s “forgotten war”

Humanitarian conditions are catastrophic:

• 12 million people displaced

• 24 million facing acute food insecurity

• 80% of emergency kitchens shut down due to funding cuts

UN officials warn that Sudan receives far less international attention than conflicts in Europe or the Middle East.

“Race is clearly a factor.”
— WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom, BBC interview

Peace talks in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Washington have failed to secure a sustained ceasefire.

Outlook: Towards partition?

With two rival governments emerging, analysts warn Sudan may be headed toward a second partition, similar to South Sudan’s secession in 2011.

• RSF controls most of western Sudan

• SAF holds the east and strategic ports

A senior regional analyst described the situation as:

“Sudan is functionally divided, and neither side believes they can afford to lose.”

Source:  BBC, MEE

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