Shopping Mall Sales Rise in June, But Real Growth Falls Behind Inflation
shopping malls
The Shopping Mall Investors Association (AYD) and Akademetre Research have released the June 2025 results of the Shopping Mall Index. According to the regularly published monthly report, the turnover index rose by 24.3% year-over-year, reaching 4,340 points in June 2025. However, with Turkey’s annual inflation rate recorded at 35.05% for the same month, the data shows that sales performance lagged behind inflation, resulting in a real decline.
Real Sales Shrink Despite Nominal Growth
Economist Fatih Keresteci commented on the figures, explaining:
“In nominal terms, the shopping mall turnover index grew by 24.3% compared to June 2024. But when adjusted for inflation (CPI), we observe an 8% real contraction. It’s important to remember that last June was an exceptionally strong period, so the base effect may distort comparisons.”
Keresteci pointed out that while year-over-year comparisons suggest weakness, monthly data shows a 1.3% real increase, and the index hit its highest level of the year in June 2025.
Category Winners and Losers: Tech Leads, Shoes Lag
Among product categories, technology items led the way, with 30.2% nominal growth, signaling continued strong demand for consumer electronics. In contrast, the footwear category remained at the bottom, posting only 4.7% nominal annual growth—a trend Keresteci described as a clear structural issue.
Footfall Declines Annually, But Peaks Monthly
Shopping mall visitor numbers fell by 5% year-over-year, yet this also reflects last year’s strong baseline. On a monthly basis, June 2025 recorded the highest foot traffic of the year. Keresteci attributed this to the pre-holiday shopping rush, which typically boosts activity during this period.
Erosion in Disposable Income Becoming Apparent
Despite monthly momentum, the year-on-year weakness reflects declining household purchasing power. With inflation especially high in services, Keresteci emphasized that less disposable income remains for retail spending, weakening the overall shopping economy.
“Following back-to-school expenses, we may see an even sharper drop in household spending power during the fourth quarter,” he warned.