Pension Expert Warns: July Pay Hikes for Civil Servants May Fall Short of Inflation

Social Security Specialist İsa Karakaş has raised concerns that the July salary increase for civil servants and retired public workers in Türkiye might fall below even the official inflation rate, as calculated by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). While SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are expected to receive a 16-17% raise, those covered under collective bargaining agreements may see smaller adjustments.

“Public Pension Hikes May Lag Behind Inflation Again”

According to Karakaş, the structure of collective bargaining for public employees may result in lower-than-inflation raises, continuing a pattern seen in previous periods.

TÜİK’s most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reveals that, as of May, pensioners under SSK, Bağ-Kur, and private retirement funds are due a 15.09% increase. The Turkish Central Bank’s (CBRT) market participants survey forecasts June inflation at 1.61%, bringing the expected first-half inflation rate to around 16-17%.

Collective Bargaining Cap Limits Raises for Public Sector

Public servants and their retirees are subject to contract-based raises, not automatic inflation adjustments. Karakaş stated that the cumulative salary increase for this group over the first five months is 14.01%, and at best, this could rise to 16% after June—still under the projected inflation rate.

“TÜİK May Once Again Announce Lower-Than-Expected Inflation”

Karakaş noted that last year TÜİK’s published inflation figures for June were significantly below expectations, warning that this trend might repeat in 2025. This would mean that even the inflation differential would fail to offer relief for public sector retirees.

“While SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees may receive around 16–17%, civil servants and public retirees could see even less, despite mounting cost-of-living pressures,” Karakaş emphasized.