Oil Price Jumps to $73 Amid Israel-Iran Tensions; Experts Warn of Inflation, Rate Cut Risks in Türkiye

The latest military escalation between Israel and Iran has pushed Brent crude prices to $73.2 per barrel, triggering concerns about inflationary pressure and widening current account deficits in Türkiye, according to leading economists.

Economist Mahfi Eğilmez warned that if the geopolitical tension intensifies, the economic toll on Türkiye could be severe.

“If Trump, Putin, and Netanyahu are in charge, keep some gold in your portfolio,” he advised, emphasizing that gold should be seen as insurance, not an investment.

The spike in oil prices followed a major Israeli airstrike on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities in Natanz, Khondab, and Khorramabad. The coordinated strike involving 200 warplanes resulted in the deaths of top Iranian commanders, including General Mohammad Bagheri, Hossein Salami, and Gholam Ali Rashid, as well as six Iranian scientists. Tehran has vowed a “multi-dimensional retaliation”, deepening fears of prolonged conflict.

Market Fallout: Turkish Stocks Drop Sharply

Global markets responded swiftly. According to economist Dr. Barış Esen, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange closed down 1.7% before halting trading, while the Borsa Istanbul index plunged by 3.5% following a previous day’s 1.7% decline.

“The geopolitical shock has rattled regional equities, and Türkiye is among the most exposed,” Esen commented.

Rising Energy Prices Could Derail Türkiye’s Monetary Plans

Economist Iris Cibre pointed to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for further price shocks if Saudi oil infrastructure were to be targeted.

“Such developments could trigger a new wave of fuel price hikes and undermine Türkiye’s plans to cut interest rates,” she explained.

Cibre stressed that energy-driven inflation could limit the central bank’s flexibility, especially as Türkiye already grapples with persistent inflation and elevated interest rates.

Oil, Gold, and the Risk of Economic Spillovers

The surge in oil prices from the $60–62 range to $73.2 in a matter of days has reinforced concerns that Türkiye’s inflation outlook could worsen, particularly given its energy import dependency. Analysts suggest that precautionary moves like allocating part of portfolios to gold may become increasingly relevant as global instability persists.