OECD Warns Turkey Will Face Fastest Aging Surge After 2050

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its 2025 Pension Report, revealing mounting pressure on pension systems worldwide as populations age at an unprecedented speed. The report highlights that Turkey will rank among the countries with the fastest increases in the elderly population after 2050, surpassing the OECD average. It also issues a critical warning: cutting pensions for retirees who choose to keep working directly contradicts the goal of extending working lives in aging societies. The OECD urges governments, including Turkey’s, to lift such restrictions to ensure both economic resilience and social sustainability.

According to the analysis covered by Cumhuriyet, the OECD argues that countries must urgently create pathways that allow retirees to remain in employment without facing financial penalties. With life expectancy rising and fertility rates falling, the report stresses that modern pension systems must adapt quickly to avoid long-term budgetary strain and workforce shortages.

Turkey Enters Accelerated Demographic Transition

The report details how demographic patterns have shifted across OECD nations over the last two decades. In 2000, the share of individuals aged 65 and above compared with those aged 20–64 stood at 22%. By 2025, this figure has climbed to 33%, and projections indicate a further rise to 52% by 2050. This means that in just 25 years, the number of older adults relative to the working-age population will more than double in many countries.

Turkey follows this trend but at an even sharper trajectory. After 2050, Turkey is expected to experience one of the fastest increases in the elderly population, alongside Chile, Mexico, and Colombia. The report notes that Turkey will not only converge with the OECD average but is projected to exceed it in the decades ahead.

The OECD identifies two major drivers accelerating this shift: the aging of the “baby boomer” generation and the rapid decline in fertility rates, both of which significantly reshape population structures.

Key Warning: Pension Cuts for Working Retirees Counterproductive

One of the central criticisms in the report focuses on the limitations imposed on retirees who continue working. OECD experts state that reducing or suspending pension benefits for those who wish to remain employed undermines the broader policy objective of encouraging older adults to stay economically active.

In Turkey, current rules differentiate sharply between groups based on when they first entered the insurance system:

Before 8 September 1999: Retirees can work without losing their pension.
After 1 October 2008: Retirees who return to work risk having their pensions cut.

This differential treatment, the OECD warns, not only creates inequality but also reduces labor force participation at a time when Turkey needs older workers to cushion the effects of demographic aging. The report also draws attention to Turkey’s employment rate for 55–64-year-olds, which stands at 38%—one of the lowest among OECD countries.

OECD Criticizes “Double Salary” Restrictions and Mandatory Contract Termination

A significant portion of the report is dedicated to the policy barriers faced by older workers. The OECD explicitly recommends lifting the restrictions that prevent retirees from simultaneously receiving a pension and earning a wage. It argues that:

• Cutting the pension of an individual who chooses to work discourages longer working lives,

• Prevents countries from benefiting from the productive capacity of older workers,

• Reduces the state’s potential tax revenue,

• And ultimately weakens the financial sustainability of pension systems.

Another major criticism concerns the requirement that employees terminate their employment contracts before they can begin receiving pension benefits. According to the report, this rule pushes older workers into more precarious conditions than they were in before retirement. The OECD recommends reviewing and reforming this requirement to ensure that transitions between full-time employment, partial work, and retirement become smoother and more secure.

Aging Workforce Needs New Policy Tools, OECD Says

The report concludes that demographic aging will continue to accelerate in the coming decades and that countries like Turkey must adopt structural reforms to enable longer, healthier working lives. Flexibility in retirement, encouraging part-time opportunities for older workers, and eliminating punitive measures such as pension cuts are presented as essential tools for maintaining economic balance.

As rising living costs push more retirees back into the workforce, the OECD underscores that penalizing them for doing so serves neither workers nor the national economy. With elderly employment already increasing due to inflation and declining purchasing power, removing existing disincentives is even more critical.

Turkey’s rapid demographic transformation, combined with low older-age employment rates, underscores the urgency of policy changes that support both retirees and long-term fiscal stability. The 2025 report signals that the window for proactive reform is narrowing, and that the next decades will determine whether pension systems across OECD countries can withstand the demographic shift ahead.