Morning Brief: Bubble Fears Spread Beyond Tech — Safe Havens Hit by Selloff
sabah-bulten7
A sharp wave of profit-taking in U.S. mega-cap tech stocks has turned into a global risk-off move, triggering losses across Asian equities, precious metals, and even bitcoin. With no near-term catalysts to push markets higher, investors are scaling back exposure and bracing for volatility. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Washington and Europe adds new stress to already fragile sentiment.
Global Selloff: From Wall Street to Asia — Markets Turn Deep Red
A rout that began in U.S. technology shares quickly spilled over into Asia overnight.
Nasdaq fell 2% yesterday, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange plunged almost 4%, erasing more than 6% in two days from record highs. South Korea experienced a similar wave of selling, partially recovering later in the session.
Investors are increasingly questioning the valuation of AI-driven megacaps:
“Big tech, big investment — but still no big earnings.”
With no supportive macro catalyst in sight, traders are closing positions ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings on November 19, pushing global equity markets into full risk-off mode.
Michael Burry Returns: Bets Against NVIDIA and Palantir
The voice of the 2008 crisis is back.
Michael Burry’s hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, disclosed put option positions targeting NVIDIA (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). The move signals expectations of further downside in AI stocks.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon echoed similar warnings:
“A major correction could occur within the next two years.”
Markets are comparing the current AI-driven rally to the dot-com bubble.
Despite the Fed holding rates around 4%, S&P 500 is still up 15% and Nasdaq 21% year-to-date — a pace that many see as unsustainable.
Gold and Silver Hit by Profit-Taking: “A Healthy Correction”
Precious metals — traditionally seen as safe havens — were not spared.
| Instrument | Recent Low | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (oz) | $3,930 | $3,960 |
| Silver (oz) | $45.50 | $47.60 |
Gold briefly pulled back toward $3,930, and we believe any move toward $3,850 may create an attractive entry point.
Silver again failed to close above $50, a critical resistance tested twice.
We are watching the Gold/Silver ratio, and if it drops below 78, we plan to open a long silver position.
Bitcoin Breaks Below $100,000 — Panic Selling After Liquidity Flush
Bitcoin has mirrored the volatility:
-
Long-standing support at 108–109K gave way
-
Price briefly dipped below $100,000
-
Rebounded to 102K by this morning
Next support: 96–97K — a zone we are monitoring for potential accumulation.
Just like precious metals, this looks like a necessary shakeout after a parabolic move.
DXY Surges — Dollar Strength Dominates Global FX
The selloff across risky assets was mirrored by a stronger U.S. dollar:
-
EUR/USD fell to the 1.15 region
-
Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 100, hitting a five-month high
-
Brent oil slid to $64 per barrel
Investors are hiding in cash while unwinding leveraged positions elsewhere.
UK Budget Preview: “Tough Decisions, No Austerity”
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signaled tax increases ahead of the November 26 budget:
“We need long-term solutions, not short-term fixes… no return to austerity.”
Reports indicate a £26 billion tax hike may be under consideration.
Sterling weakened further — we entered a short GBPUSD position below 1.31.
U.S. Government Shutdown — Longest in History, Again
Washington has entered day 35 of the federal shutdown.
Democrats rejected the Republican spending bill, citing cancelled pandemic health assistance.
The shutdown now ties the record for the longest budget deadlock in U.S. history.
Democrats Score Key Election Wins
In the first major elections under Trump’s second administration:
-
Zohran Mamdani became New York’s first Muslim mayor.
-
Democrats won governorships in Virginia and New Jersey.
The results are seen as a political pushback against Trump.
Tesla Crisis: Norway Sovereign Fund Blocks Musk’s $1 Trillion Compensation Package
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund voted against the proposal:
“The package gives Musk disproportionate power and destabilizes corporate governance.”
Tesla shareholders will vote soon — a turning point for both Musk’s fortune and Tesla’s strategic direction.
Turkey: Bahçeli Opens Door to Imralı Delegation
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli made two striking statements:
“Demirtaş’s release will be beneficial for Turkey.”
“MHP is ready to join the delegation visiting İmralı.”
Markets are watching closely — positioning this as part of a broader push toward a Turkey without terrorism.
Borsa Istanbul Falls as Authorities Signal Crackdown on Manipulation
SPK Chair İbrahim Gönül warned:
“Manipulation penalties will increase. If necessary, fund managers’ licenses will be revoked.”
BIST100 closed 1.3% lower, with:
-
USDTRY above 42, still tightly managed
-
CDS slightly higher at 249 bps
Turkey: Auto Market Booms, Imports Surge
Ekim otomotiv verileri:
-
Auto + LCV sales: +19.4% y/y (116,149 units)
-
Jan–Oct sales: 1.04 million units
Cars remain an inflation hedge for consumers.
Foreign trade deficit widened:
-
Exports: $24bn
-
Imports: $31.4bn
-
Trade deficit: $7.4bn (+24%)
China-driven import growth stands out.
Today’s Calendar
-
Germany Factory Orders
-
Eurozone Services PMI
-
US ISM Services & ADP jobs (tentative)
Risk appetite remains fragile — data could determine market direction.
