Minimum Wage Talks Enter Critical Stage as Turkey Eyes 2026 Pay Rise

Turkey’s negotiations to set the 2026 minimum wage are entering a critical stage, with millions of workers awaiting clarity on their future earnings. After two initial meetings ended without a final figure, the Minimum Wage Determination Commission is expected to convene for a third meeting this week. Whether the wage will be announced at that session or delayed to a possible fourth meeting remains uncertain, but expectations are rising that a decision is close.

The talks come at a time when inflation dynamics, labor representation issues, and employer cost pressures are all shaping the debate. As the process moves forward, analysts say the framework for a final compromise is already visible.

Two Meetings Completed, No Figure Yet

The second meeting concluded last Thursday at the headquarters of the Ministry of Labour and Social Security, with participation from government officials and employer representatives. As with the first session, labor unions were not formally represented at the table.

Despite this absence, Labour and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan took steps to ensure workers’ views were included. Ahead of the second meeting, Işıkhan personally visited the headquarters of TÜRK-İŞ and HAK-İŞ, gathering their demands and proposals to relay them directly to commission members.

Explaining his approach, Işıkhan underlined that the absence of unions from the commission would not translate into their exclusion from the decision-making process.

“TÜRK-İŞ General President reiterated the reasons for not taking part in the commission. I then visited HAK-İŞ President Mahmut Arslan. My aim in managing this consultation process is clear: the worker side may not be at the table, but as Minister of Labour and Social Security, I went to TÜRK-İŞ and set up a TÜRK-İŞ table, then went to HAK-İŞ and set up a HAK-İŞ table. I received both presidents’ demands and proposals on the minimum wage and will convey them to the commission members. As we do every year, while determining the 2026 minimum wage, we will adhere to the principle of not letting workers be crushed by inflation and of protecting and improving their welfare and purchasing power.”

Third Meeting Expected, Timeline Still Unclear

With the third meeting expected imminently, attention has turned to whether the process will conclude quickly. While the commission can legally meet a fourth time, many observers believe that the government is aiming to finalize the talks without prolonging uncertainty.

Economist Muhammed Bayram told Hurriyet.com.tr that he expects negotiations to wrap up soon.

“I believe the third meeting will take place this week and that the talks can be concluded without needing a fourth meeting,” Bayram said, adding that the minister’s direct engagement with labor unions helped prevent delays following TÜRK-İŞ’s decision not to participate formally.

Possible Increase Scenarios

Speculation over the size of the 2026 minimum wage increase has intensified. Bayram pointed to recent political signals and fiscal measures as key indicators of the likely outcome.

Referring to remarks made by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the general assembly of employer representatives, Bayram recalled the call for businesses to shoulder more responsibility.

“The President stated at the employers’ general assembly that businesses need to put their hands under the stone. The state has already done so by refraining from collecting taxes on minimum wage income across all wage levels,” Bayram said.

He emphasized that the government’s primary goal is to prevent workers from losing purchasing power to inflation while maintaining balance across the private sector.

“For this reason, I maintain my expectation that the increase could be set at a minimum of 28% and a maximum of 32%.”

Millions Await the Decision

For millions of workers earning the minimum wage, the upcoming decision will directly affect household budgets and living standards in 2026. Employers, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, are also watching closely as wage costs play a central role in pricing and employment decisions.

Although labor unions remain absent from the formal commission table, the government maintains that their views are being incorporated through direct consultations. As the third meeting approaches, expectations are mounting that the long-awaited figure may soon be announced.

Whether finalized this week or after one final round, Turkey’s 2026 minimum wage decision is shaping up to be one of the most closely followed economic developments of the year.