Massive Pay Hike Incoming? Inflation Triggers Automatic Raise

With the release of Turkey’s November inflation data, the salary increase that will be granted to millions of public employees and retired public servants in January has largely taken shape. Based on the five-month cumulative inflation, the raise rate is already guaranteed at 17.56%, while the final figure will be determined after the December inflation announcement.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) published the November inflation results, enabling calculations of the interim inflation difference and the guaranteed increase rate to be applied at the start of 2025. The exact adjustment will be finalized only once the December numbers are released.

Five-Month Inflation Difference Secures a 17.56% Raise

According to the most recent data, the inflation-adjusted rate of increase for public servants and retired public personnel over five months stands at 17.56%. Analysts note that unless December inflation is negative, this figure is effectively locked in.

The interim inflation difference—a mechanism that compensates for inflation exceeding the previous collective bargaining increase—has reached 5.91% for the five months. This difference is added to the contractual raise to determine the final adjustment for January.

In practical terms, public servants are entitled to this inflation compensation because the cumulative inflation has surpassed the percentage previously agreed upon in the collective bargaining contract for the current period.

Collective Bargaining Raises Will Shape the Final Amount

While the inflation difference drives a substantial portion of the raise, the second determinant is the contractual increase stipulated in the multi-year collective bargaining agreement. For the upcoming adjustment:

• The collective bargaining raise for July 2025 had already been set at 5%.

These contractual increases form the basis of salary adjustments for all public employees and retired public workers, and inflation differences are added on top whenever inflation exceeds the negotiated amounts.

Future Collective Bargaining Raise Calendar (2026–2027)

The agreement also outlines raise rates for the upcoming years, shaping expectations for medium-term salary adjustments. The scheduled increases are as follows:

• First half of 2026: 11%

• Second half of 2026: 7%

• First half of 2027: 5%

• Second half of 2027: 4%

In each period, if inflation exceeds these figures, the difference will be added again as extra compensation. This structure partially shields public employees’ salaries from rising living costs, though its effectiveness varies with actual inflation trends.

What Happens Next? December Inflation Will Finalize the Raise

Even though the rate of increase is already largely determined, the official figure will only be confirmed once TÜİK releases December inflation data. Economists expect inflation to continue upward rather than contract, making a negative reading unlikely. This means public servants can already factor a minimum 17.56% increase into their expectations for January.

If December inflation comes in higher than expected, both the inflation difference and the final raise rate will increase accordingly.

Millions Await Clarity Amid Continued Inflation Pressure

Public employees—alongside retirees in the same category—represent one of the largest segments of the Turkish workforce, and salary adjustments have become a closely watched topic as inflation continues to erode purchasing power. While the raise mechanism provides some buffer, unions emphasize that real incomes remain under pressure due to persistent annual inflation far exceeding the cumulative raise percentages.

As the year draws to a close, the December figures will not only finalize the January raise but also shape broader expectations for wage policies in 2025, especially ahead of upcoming collective bargaining rounds and budget planning cycles.

For now, however, public servants have confirmation that the raise will not fall below 17.56%, ensuring at least some relief as they enter the new year under ongoing cost-of-living challenges.