Market Review: Brokerages See Short-Term Volatility, Limited Upside for Borsa Istanbul

Turkish equities remain under pressure amid renewed political tension and rising market uncertainty. Brokerage reports released midweek suggest that the BIST 100 could continue to trade in a volatile, sideways pattern until clarity emerges on both domestic political risks and external catalysts.

Political Tensions Overshadow Market Fundamentals

The completion of the indictment concerning Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and allegations tied to CHP’s Istanbul provincial building have reignited political risk in local markets. The rumor that the case implied a possible party closure triggered a sharp sell-off, with the BIST 100 index sliding toward the critical 10,300 support level.
Although authorities clarified that no formal closure motion was filed, the perception of heightened political risk dominated trading and reinforced investor caution.

Destek Yatırım: “Range-Bound Movements Likely”

According to Destek Yatırım, the index tested its major support near 10,300 after headlines sparked panic selling. The firm maintains that the corrective decline that began in October is nearing completion above 11,000, but added uncertainty now limits momentum. The brokerage expects short-term buying opportunities to emerge in the 10,300–10,500 band, with rebounds capped near 10,820 unless a new positive catalyst appears.

Yapı Kredi Yatırım: “Weak Momentum May Persist”

Yapı Kredi Yatırım underlined that downward pressure continues amid rising volatility. Despite partial intraday recoveries, it sees resistance at 12,200–12,300 and expects weakness to persist below this zone. The first key support is identified between 11,550–11,450, with a potential for mild rebounds if the market stabilizes there. A sustained break below this area, however, could signal a deeper correction.

Info Yatırım: “Politics Back in Focus”

Info Yatırım noted that the BIST 100 closed 1.97% lower at 10,576, primarily due to the CHP-related headlines. The firm projects a flat opening but cautions that political developments may continue to weigh on sentiment, with 10,250 as the initial technical support.
While the global backdrop remains more constructive—thanks to optimism in the U.S. and strength in precious metals—concerns about tariffs, AI valuations, and monetary policy uncertainty still cloud the external outlook.

IKON Yatırım: “Technicals Show Fragility”

IKON Yatırım’s technical analysis highlights the index’s weak short-term positioning, with prices trading 2.7% below the 5-day moving average and 1.2% below the 22-day average. Pivot level is marked at 10,596, with supports at 10,353 and 10,131, and resistance levels at 10,819 and 11,061. The firm notes that daily trading volume exceeded the five-day average by nearly 14%, suggesting heightened speculative activity but not yet a reversal.

A1 Capital: “Key Support at 10,565; Watch 10,317 if Broken”

A1 Capital reported that the index moved within the 10,373–10,839 range and ended the day with a 1.97% loss. The brokerage identifies 10,565 as the critical near-term support; a break below could open the way toward the 200-day moving average near 10,317.
If the market manages to sustain a recovery above 10,630, it may attempt to retest 10,806. However, daily technical indicators still point to a broadly negative bias.

Marbaş Yatırım: “Misinterpretations Triggered Selling”

Marbaş Yatırım attributed Tuesday’s volatility to market misinterpretation of legal headlines, noting that subsequent clarifications helped reduce panic. The firm expects potential rebound attempts within the 10,550–11,000 range but stresses that stronger catalysts are needed to break out of this zone. It also highlighted easing in CDS and TR-VIX levels, which could support short-term recovery.

VİOP 30 Outlook: Consolidation Ahead

The near-term VİOP 30 index contract closed at 11,972, with resistance seen at 12,400 and 12,600, while supports are located at 11,600 and 11,400. Analysts note that trading below the 60-hour moving average near 12,256 keeps short-term downside risk intact, though after-hours strength signals potential stabilization.

Outlook: A Fragile but Stabilizing Market

Broker consensus suggests that the BIST 100 is unlikely to enter a sustained uptrend until political noise subsides. While technical charts indicate oversold conditions near 10,300, buyers remain hesitant without a clear domestic or global trigger.
Most analysts foresee a sideways consolidation between 10,300 and 10,800 in the near term, with selective opportunities in defensive sectors. If the 10,300 support holds, short-covering and bargain hunting could lift the index back toward 10,900–11,000 levels. A decisive break below 10,300, however, risks extending losses toward the 10,100–10,000 zone.

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