MARKET OUTLOOK: Borsa İstanbul Searches for Balance as TL Eyes Housing Data

Volatility Persists Despite Mild Recovery

Following Tuesday’s sharp losses, Borsa İstanbul saw a moderate rebound on Wednesday as bargain hunters stepped in. The BIST 100 index closed 0.6% higher at 10,640 points, after briefly gaining as much as 1.2% earlier in the session.
However, on a weekly basis, the index remains 2.6% lower and continues to trade below the critical 10,800 resistance level, which analysts view as a key technical threshold for sentiment to improve.

According to Ünlü & Co, the recent price action is part of the ongoing volatility cycle. The brokerage notes that the market is still trying to recover from its loss of momentum since the start of November, and whether it can regain direction will depend on macroeconomic signals in the days ahead.

Current Account Surplus Close to Expectations

On the macro front, Turkey’s current account balance posted a $1.11 billion surplus in September, slightly below market expectations of $1.2 billion.
The year-to-date deficit reached $14.9 billion, while the 12-month rolling gap widened to $20.1 billion. Ünlü & Co maintains its year-end forecast at $22 billion.

Despite seasonal support from tourism revenues, the persistent deficit underscores Turkey’s reliance on external financing, though the ratio of current account deficit to GDP remains well below historical averages.

Lira Watch: Housing and Foreign Portfolio Data Ahead

The Turkish Statistical Institute will release October housing sales figures today. In September, total home sales rose 6.9% year-on-year to 150,657 units, with mortgage sales up 34.4% to 21,266. For the first nine months, total sales reached 1.13 million units, up 19.2% annually.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will publish weekly portfolio data for non-residents. During the previous week, foreign investors increased their equity holdings by $243 million and government bond positions by $487 million.
That week, the BIST 100 recorded a mild decline, while local bond yields moved higher, signaling continued volatility in foreign flows.

Bank Stocks Lead Modest Rebound

After three consecutive sessions of heavy pressure, bank shares rose 1%, helping to stabilize overall sentiment.
Heavyweights such as Koza Altın, BİM, ASELSAN, and Tüpraş were among the top contributors, adding a combined 36 points to the benchmark index’s 64-point total gain.

Analysts remain cautious, however, noting that 10,800 remains a critical resistance level. Sustained movement above this point is seen as essential to confirm a technical recovery and attract new inflows into Turkish equities.

Technical Levels: A1 Capital’s Outlook

According to A1 Capital, the BIST 100 index opened Wednesday’s session 79 points higher at 10,655 and closed at 10,640, up 0.61%. Intraday moves ranged between 10,581–10,706, with total trading volume reaching 122.3 billion TRY.

The most notable gainers were Mining, Leasing-Factoring, and Communication, while Paper-Pulp, Tourism, and SME Industry sectors underperformed.
Positive index contributions came from Koza Altın, BİM, and ASELSAN, while Turkish Airlines and Borusan Group weighed on the benchmark.

Key Technical Levels

A1 Capital notes early signs of short-term stabilization:

• Resistance: 10,702 (22-day moving average). A breakout above this level could accelerate momentum toward 11,050.

• Support: 10,565 is the first major support. A drop below this threshold may trigger further weakness toward 10,415 and 10,320.

VIOP Futures: Calm but Directionless

• BIST-30 (near-term) closed at 12,012.

  • Supports: 11,928 / 11,832 / 11,748 / 11,652

  • Resistances: 12,097 / 12,193 / 12,277 / 12,373

• USD/TRY (near-term) settled at 42.803.

  • Supports: 42.760 / 42.6745 / 42.589 / 42.5035

  • Resistances: 42.846 / 42.9315 / 43.017 / 43.1025

Outlook: Searching for Direction Amid Volatility

Borsa İstanbul continues to seek balance after a volatile week, with investors focusing on local macro data and foreign flows for guidance.
While technical signals point to short-term stabilization, analysts caution that sentiment will remain fragile unless the benchmark index regains the 10,800 level.

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