Leaked Pentagon Assessment Warns U.S. Military May Lose Its Edge Against China

A classified Pentagon evaluation revealed by The New York Times has ignited intense debate in Washington over the actual state of American military dominance. The document—an extensive analysis known as “Overmatch” and produced by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment—concludes that the United States is far less prepared for a potential confrontation with China than long assumed. Contrary to decades of strategic doctrine, the report warns that the technological and structural advantages Washington once relied on have eroded dramatically as Beijing accelerates its own military modernization.

Submitted to the White House in 2021

According to the Times’ reporting, the assessment spans every major component of U.S. war-fighting capability: advanced fighter jets, aircraft carriers, missile defense networks, space-based communications, and cyber operations. In scenario after scenario explored through Pentagon war games, Chinese forces were shown outperforming U.S. assets or neutralizing them through targeted technological countermeasures. The revelations were so stark that when the analysis was first delivered to a senior White House official in 2021, the individual’s “face went pale,” the Times reported.

The report emphasizes that while the U.S. continues to invest heavily in large, complex, and increasingly difficult-to-defend platforms—a model rooted in Cold War logic—China has pursued an opposing strategy. Beijing prioritized rapid, low-cost production of sophisticated weapons systems designed to overwhelm or disable America’s most prized assets. One striking example is China’s expanding stockpile of hypersonic weapons, which reportedly numbers around 600. These arms present a severe challenge to U.S. deterrence, particularly as the United States has yet to field an operational hypersonic weapon of its own.

Drones and Autonomy Reshape the Modern Battlefield

The Times points to the war in Ukraine as a real-world demonstration of this shift. Ukrainian forces’ use of inexpensive drones to strike Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and target sites deep within Russian territory underscores the vulnerability of high-priced conventional systems. According to the analysis, the battlefield is moving decisively toward an era dominated by “cheap but lethal” autonomous platforms—an area where the U.S. has not adapted swiftly enough in its defense planning.

One of the Pentagon’s costliest programs, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, is cited as a significant liability in this evolving environment. Despite its $13-billion price tag and advanced design, simulations reportedly showed the carrier repeatedly being struck by China’s long-range missile capabilities. The assessment likewise highlights persistent structural flaws within the F-35 program, even after more than 20 years of development.

Institutional Resistance Slows Transformation

According to the Times, the internal challenges confronting the U.S. military are not solely technological—they are political, bureaucratic, and cultural. Congressional budget dynamics remain heavily shaped by major defense contractors, making sweeping structural reforms difficult to enact. Within the Pentagon, entrenched bureaucratic practices and senior commanders’ reluctance to abandon the systems that shaped their careers have created powerful barriers to modernization.

Compounding these issues is the steady decline of the U.S. industrial-military base. As manufacturing capacity shrank over recent decades, America’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict diminished sharply. The report notes that munitions stockpiles could be rapidly depleted in a long war with a significant power. Real-time examples include the U.S.’s struggle to meet Ukraine’s demand for Patriot missiles during the three-year conflict, and the rapid drawdown of American defensive inventory following Iran’s attack in the Middle East.

Cyber Threats Deepen the Vulnerability

The Times further reports that the Overmatch study devotes significant attention to U.S. cyber weaknesses. A Chinese state-linked hacking group known as Volt Typhoon allegedly penetrated infrastructure tied to U.S. military bases, including electrical, water, and communications systems. The assessment warns that during a crisis, such intrusions could disrupt troop deployments or impair critical logistical functions.

These findings collectively point to a singular conclusion: the U.S. military must undergo a sweeping transformation. The Times notes that the report advocates shifting toward faster-produced, lower-cost, and more flexible defense technologies. The goal, it argues, should not be to prepare for war with China but to restore credible deterrence that prevents conflict from erupting in the first place.

Ultimately, the newspaper characterizes the Overmatch report as an urgent alarm bell for both the Pentagon and the White House—one that questions whether policymakers will act on its warnings before strategic parity tilts further in China’s favor.