Istanbul Stock Exchange Maintains Momentum into July

Borsa Istanbul extends rally amid fading political risks

Following a stellar performance in June with a gain exceeding 10%, Borsa Istanbul kicked off July on a strong note. On the first trading day of the month, the BIST-100 index rose by 5.8% and added another 1.3% on Tuesday, supported by a favorable risk backdrop both domestically and globally.

Interest rate cut expectations drive local asset performance

The expectation of a rate cut by the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) is fueling market enthusiasm. Compared to global peers, Turkish equities are outperforming sharply — while the BIST gained over 7% in the first two days of the week, global benchmarks posted gains of less than 1% on average.

Markets look ahead to inflation data

Investors are now turning their focus to June inflation data, due Thursday. The prevailing view is that the annual rate will continue to ease, which would help sustain the market’s positive momentum. The main risk on the horizon is profit-taking following the recent sharp rally.

TL Watch: Focus on Inflation and Manufacturing Data

Istanbul inflation largely in line with expectations

According to data from the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), retail prices in the city rose 1.77% month-on-month and 44.38% year-on-year in June. The biggest price increases were recorded in housing (+2.70%), household goods (+2.57%), and restaurants & hotels (+1.98%), while entertainment & culture saw a modest decline of 0.07%.

June CPI expected to slow

The nationwide consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 1.5% month-on-month, which would lower the annual rate to 35.30%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI dropped from 47.2 to 46.7 in June, marking the 15th consecutive month of contraction — broadly in line with earlier signals from the real sector confidence index.

Technical Picture: BIST-100 and TL Assets

Index surpasses key technical levels

The BIST-100 index has now posted several strong closes above its 100-day moving average for the first time since March 19. Holding above the psychologically important 10,000-point level could further boost investor sentiment.

Overbought signals raise caution

One noteworthy technical development: the proportion of stocks trading above their 10-day moving averages has climbed to 90%. Historically, similar readings in May and June preceded short-term pullbacks. However, the current environment — marked by lower political risk and easing expectations — suggests a more supportive backdrop this time.

VIOP Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

BIST-30 Near-Term Futures

The BIST-30 futures contract closed at 11,920. Key support levels:
11,837, 11,742, 11,658, 11,563
Resistance levels:
12,004, 12,099, 12,183, 12,278

USD/TRY Near-Term Futures

The USD/TRY contract ended the day at 40.987. Key support levels:
40.946, 40.864, 40.782, 40.700
Resistance levels:
41.028, 41.110, 41.192, 41.274

Source:  Ünlü & Co

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