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Istanbul Inflation Slows Slightly in May Ahead of Official CPI Data

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Istanbul Chamber of Commerce reports a monthly inflation rate of 2.83% in May, with annual inflation easing to 46.57%. All eyes now turn to TÜİK’s nationwide inflation report, due June 3.

The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) released its Retail Price Index for May, revealing that consumer prices in the city rose by 2.83% month-on-month. On an annual basis, inflation in Istanbul eased slightly to 46.57%, down from 47.21% in April.

This marks a mild deceleration in monthly inflation, following a 3.21% increase recorded in April.

Food Prices Lead Gains, Education Sees Rare Dip

Among spending categories, food prices surged the most in May, rising 3.24%. This was followed by:

  • Housing: +3.10%

  • Recreation & Culture: +2.52%

Notably, education-related costs recorded a rare decline of 0.01%. Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco remained unchanged.

Attention Shifts to TÜİK’s National CPI on June 3

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will release the official national inflation figures on Tuesday, June 3. The data will also determine the ceiling for rent hikes in June.

Following April’s numbers, the maximum rent increase for May was calculated at 48.73%.

Economists Expect Further Cooling in Annual Inflation

A recent expectation survey by Anadolu Agency Finance gathered responses from 23 economists, forecasting an average monthly CPI of 2.10% for May. Individual forecasts ranged between 1.80% and 2.75%.

Based on the consensus estimate, Turkey’s annual inflation rate is expected to drop from 37.86% in April to around 36.17% in May.

Further highlights from the survey:

  • Median monthly CPI estimate: 2.00%

  • Median annual inflation estimate: 36.10%

  • Lowest monthly forecast: 1.55%

  • Highest monthly forecast: 2.75%

  • Annual inflation forecast range: 35.44% to 37.50%

  • 2025 year-end inflation forecast (average): 31.17%

 

BloombergHT Poll: Median Forecast Points to 2% Monthly Inflation in May

A separate survey conducted with 24 financial institutions found that the median expectation for May’s monthly inflation stood at 2.00%.

According to economists’ median forecasts:

  • Monthly CPI (May): 2.00%

  • Annual inflation (May): 36.10%

For monthly inflation, estimates ranged from a low of 1.55% to a high of 2.75%.
On an annual basis, forecasts varied between 35.44% and 37.50%.

Source: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), Anadolu Agency Finance


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