Israeli Media Warns of Rising Risk of Conflict with Türkiye

A detailed analysis published by Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth has raised alarm bells in Tel Aviv, warning that Israel must act decisively to avoid a future conflict with Türkiye. The report portrays Türkiye as a rapidly ascending regional power, reshaping the Middle East’s balance of power and potentially supplanting Iran as Israel’s top geopolitical threat.

Authored by Yehonatan Adiri, a tech entrepreneur and former officer in Israel’s Foreign Relations Brigade, the article makes it clear: “Türkiye is not Iran—not in isolation, economy, or strategic reach.”

Türkiye’s New Role: Not at the Table—But Building It

Adiri argues that the Türkiye of 2025 is no longer just seeking a voice in regional affairs, but is actively working to “build the entire table”—a reference to Ankara’s growing influence across defense, diplomacy, and energy sectors.

With its dual alignment between East and West, a powerful industrial base, and significant leverage over Europe, Türkiye is described as a state “with one foot in NATO and a hand on Eurasia’s strategic pulse.”

Syria Alliance Raises Red Flags in Tel Aviv

One of the most pressing concerns outlined in the report is the rumored emerging Turkish-Syrian defense alliance, which could include the establishment of Turkish military bases deep within Syrian territory.

Such a move, Adiri warns, would represent a major strategic shift and requires urgent Israeli military and diplomatic engagement to deter President Erdoğan from pursuing it further.

“An Israeli failure to secure the northern arena may open the door to a Türkiye proxy war far more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report states.

Hakan Fidan: Türkiye’s Strategic Architect

While much attention often centers on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the analysis singles out Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, a former intelligence chief, as the real architect of Türkiye’s assertive foreign policy.

“Fidan is more than a diplomat,” Adiri writes. “He is the mastermind behind Türkiye’s push for dominance—from Libya to Syria, from the Mediterranean naval front to simultaneous engagement with Russia and NATO.”

The report underscores that Fidan’s geopolitical engineering is enabling Türkiye to build layered influence networks, including military, energy, and diplomatic instruments.

Military Power and Economic Leverage

The analysis lays out Türkiye’s hard power assets:

• NATO’s second-largest military

• Military exports of over $7 billion, up fourfold in the past decade

• 70% domestic defense production, including global leadership in drone manufacturing

On the economic front, Türkiye’s control over major energy routes, especially natural gas pipelines supplying Europe, is presented as a non-military leverage point that enhances its regional clout.

Israel’s Strategic Dilemma: Who to Align With?

To counterbalance Ankara’s expanding influence, the analysis proposes two alliance options for Israel:

1. A “moderate axis” of Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, though Türkiye now enjoys increasingly stable relations with all three.

2. A Mediterranean alliance involving Greece and Greek Cyprus, which is reportedly Israel’s current focus, particularly through arms sales and energy cooperation.

“This bloc marks geopolitical and territorial boundaries for Türkiye,” Adiri states, “especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, where Cyprus is viewed by Ankara as its backyard.”

A Tipping Point in the Region

The Yedioth Ahronoth article ultimately calls for urgent and strategic recalibration by Israel to avoid a worsening standoff. With Türkiye’s regional ambitions escalating and traditional deterrents weakening, the analysis concludes that a proactive Israeli approach is essential to avoid unintended escalation or strategic isolation.