Iraq Election Outcome Seen as Boost for Stability as Sudani Strengthens Position

Published in pro-AKP Türkiye Gazette

Summary:

Iraq’s recent parliamentary elections delivered a clear victory for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s Development and Reconstruction Coalition. Iraqi political analysts say the result strengthens prospects for political stability and regional cooperation, while signaling a decline in the influence of sectarian groups backed by Iran. Experts argue that the outcome could support deeper coordination with Turkey on counterterrorism and economic corridors, including the strategic Development Road project.

Sudani Consolidates Power After Election Win

Iraq’s general elections resulted in a strong showing for the bloc led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is now widely expected to secure at least two consecutive terms in office. Analysts note that the results mark a new phase in Iraq’s internal political recalibration.

Ershad Salihi, former head of the Iraqi Turkmen Front and newly re-elected MP from Kirkuk, told Turkish media that Iraq is undergoing a broad political, cultural and economic transition. He described the vote as a contest between Sudani and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, with the current prime minister emerging decisively ahead.

Analysts Point to Shifting Sectarian Dynamics

Salihi said the election underscored a weakening of sectarian blocs within Iraq, adding that the influence of Iran-aligned groups had diminished.

He also argued that Turkey’s recent cross-border security initiatives have shaped the political environment. According to Salihi, Ankara’s efforts to reduce militant activity along its borders could evolve into a broader “terror-free region” concept embraced jointly by Turkey, Iraq and Syria.

Salihi warned that elements of the PKK, including fighters displaced from Makhmour and Sinjar, have relocated to areas around Kirkuk and are attempting to reorganize. He called for coordinated action by Ankara, Baghdad and Damascus in response.

Iran’s Regional Setbacks Reflected in Iraq, Academics Say

Turkmen academic Prof. Mahir Nakip said Iran’s political and military losses in Lebanon and Syria have begun to echo inside Iraq. He argued that the latest results highlight the need for greater attention to the Tel Afar–Mosul corridor, which he described as strategically vital for both Turkmens and Turkey.

Nakip emphasized that Mosul carries significant importance for Turkey due to its geographic and economic role, including its position along the planned Development Road—a logistics megaproject intended to connect the Gulf to Europe via Iraq and Turkey.

He said some Iran-aligned political groups had voiced opposition to the project before the elections, but Sudani’s victory provides additional political space for Ankara to advance its plans. Nakip added that establishing a stronger organizational presence in Mosul will be essential in the coming period.

Gonul Tol commented on Turkey-Iraq relations in X

Despite President Trump’s lavish praise for Turkish officials at every turn, US-Turkey ties face serious obstacles. One of the biggest headaches for Ankara is Trump’s demand that Turkey halt imports of Russian oil — a move Turkey cannot make overnight, prompting Ankara to plead for leniency and more time. This pressure from Washington, combined with broader Western sanctions, has pushed Turkey to deepen its energy and political ties with Iraq. Ankara has been cultivating a close relationship with Prime Minister Sudani and expanding its leverage over Baghdad.

A recent deal illustrates this shift: Turkish companies will build major water-infrastructure projects in Iraq, financed through Iraqi oil revenues. Turkey is also seeking tighter cooperation on security, intelligence, and the PKK at a moment when Ankara is quietly negotiating with the group over disarmament. With Iran weakened, Iraq has emerged as a critical arena in which Turkey hopes to gain ground on multiple fronts. That is why Ankara is watching the Iraqi elections so closely — the stakes for Turkey are high.

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