Iran and Turkey Expand Roles in Gaza Ceasefire Talks as Egypt’s Influence Fades

Iran and Turkey have emerged as key behind-the-scenes actors in the ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, according to sources familiar with the secretive negotiations. While the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt have led official mediation attempts since the last ceasefire collapsed in March, the deadlock persists amid mounting civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

This week, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged Iran’s involvement, stating,

“Gaza is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran actually is involved.”

However, sources clarified that Tehran’s participation in the process is not new. Since the war began in October 2023, Iran has provided advisory support to Hamas and held indirect talks with Qatari and Egyptian negotiators. In recent weeks, Iran’s role has intensified, a shift believed to be linked to ongoing nuclear discussions with the U.S.

“Iran has been present in the Gaza talks from day one,” one source revealed. “But its profile has grown in recent weeks. The nuclear talks appear to have opened space to discuss Gaza as well.”

Turkey’s Role Expands Post-Assad, Builds Ties with the West

Turkey’s involvement in the Gaza talks has also grown, albeit at a more modest level. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in December and a subsequent diplomatic shift toward the West, Turkey has positioned itself as a capable regional intermediary. A NATO member and close U.S. ally, Turkey maintains strong ties with Hamas, hosting several of its senior leaders and providing financial and logistical support.

Turkey is also viewed as a likely destination for Hamas leadership if Israel insists on their exile from Gaza — along with Algeria.

“Turkey has demonstrated to the U.S. that it has real regional influence and the ability to help stabilize areas like Gaza and Syria,” a source said.

Egypt’s Waning Role in Gaza Negotiations

Once the central broker in Israeli-Palestinian ceasefires, Egypt’s influence has declined. The emergence of Bishara Bahbah, an American-Palestinian acting as the U.S. intermediary with Hamas, has diminished Egypt’s centrality, according to sources.

Even before Bahbah became involved in March, the U.S. had already bypassed its designation of Hamas as a terrorist group to hold direct talks with Hamas leaders in Qatar.

Egypt’s tense relations with Washington — especially after rejecting Trump’s January 2025 proposal to resettle Gazans in Egypt and Jordan — have further complicated its standing. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi canceled a planned White House visit in February, and Egypt was excluded from Trump’s regional tour in May.

“Egypt’s role is now shaped more by its geography than its diplomacy,” said Michael Hanna, senior fellow at the International Crisis Group. “It borders trouble zones in Gaza, Libya, and Sudan, but lacks the broader reach it once had.”

The Israeli capture of Rafah’s Palestinian side in May 2024, and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that have damaged Suez Canal revenues, have added to Egypt’s woes. The economic toll has constrained Cairo’s ability to act decisively.

“Egypt is often in a supplicant posture,” Hanna noted. “That’s not the stance of a country exerting strong regional influence.”

Yet some local voices disagree. Ammar Ali Hassan, an Egyptian sociologist, argued that Egypt’s reduced visibility is less about capability and more about political will and internal priorities.

“Military strength is there, but without vision and amid rising poverty, Egypt has shifted to safeguarding its own stability over regional projection,” Hassan said.