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Inflation Gap Widens: TÜİK Reports 33.52%, ENAG Claims 65.15% in July

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Turkey’s official inflation rate dropped to 33.52% in July, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), but independent researchers from ENAG reported a starkly different figure—65.15% annually—widening the credibility gap in inflation reporting.

TÜİK Reports Lower-Than-Expected July Inflation

TÜİK announced that monthly consumer inflation was 2.06% in July 2025, below the market expectation of 2.4%. The year-to-date (seven-month) inflation reached 19.07% according to TÜİK, while ENAG calculated it at 34.57%, a 15.5-point discrepancy.

Comparative figures:

  • TÜİK (Official): 33.52% annual inflation

  • ENAG (Independent): 65.15% annual inflation

  • Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (İTO): 42.48% annual inflation

Monthly Inflation Also Diverges

For July:

  • TÜİK: 2.06%

  • İTO: 2.62%

  • ENAG: 3.75%

This reflects a 1.69-point difference between the lowest and highest reported monthly rates, further fueling debate on data reliability.

Expert Opinions: “Who Would Believe in a Trend the Government Doesn’t Trust?”

Prominent economist Dr. Mahfi Eğilmez criticized the contradiction between official inflation claims and the government’s tax hikes. He stated:

“If inflation is really declining and will drop to 5% as claimed, then why are property taxes rising five- to tenfold? How can a government expect the public to believe in a trend it clearly doesn’t support?”

Babuşcu: “ENAG Has Nearly Doubled TÜİK”

Professor Şenol Babuşcu noted that ENAG’s seven-month cumulative inflation is 15.5 points higher than TÜİK’s, adding that on a yearly basis, ENAG’s estimate is “almost twice as high as the official rate.”

Iris Cibre: “CB Needs 1.62% Monthly Inflation to Hit Year-End Target”

Economist İris Cibre underlined that to meet the Central Bank’s year-end inflation target of 29%, average monthly inflation must be no higher than 1.62%. But with recent hikes in administered prices and accelerating currency depreciation, she said this goal looks increasingly “unrealistic.”

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