How Much Are the CBRT’s FX Reserves Really Increasing?
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Analysts offer different estimates, but the upward trend is clear
Turkey’s central bank, the CBRT, has seen a noticeable uptick in its foreign exchange reserves in recent weeks. While there is broad consensus that reserves are rising again, calculations from various experts show some differences in magnitude. Here are three notable assessments of the recent changes.
Independent Economist: $6.6 Billion Recovery in 12 Days
A trusted economist, speaking on condition of anonymity, shared their analysis with ParaAnaliz via email. According to data from the CBRT’s May 15 balance sheet, the bank’s net FX position rose by $600 million on that day alone.
Net reserves increased from $33.4 billion to $33.9 billion, while the central bank’s net foreign exchange position—excluding on- and off-balance sheet liabilities—climbed from $13.6 billion to $14.2 billion.
This marks a $6.6 billion rise in net FX assets over the past 12 days, effectively reducing the total reserve depletion since the pre-turmoil period of March 14 to $43.7 billion.
Prof. Hakan Kara: $7.9 Billion in Net FX Purchases in Two Weeks
Economist and former CBRT Chief Economist Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara published a chart on social media indicating that the CBRT has purchased $7.9 billion in FX over the past two weeks.
This figure aligns with the broader narrative that the central bank has intensified efforts to rebuild its reserves through market interventions and other mechanisms.
HSBC’s İbrahim Aksoy: Reserves Climb with Reduced Bank Liquidity Needs
According to İbrahim Aksoy, Chief Economist at HSBC Asset Management, adjusted net reserves—excluding FX swaps—continue to improve.
As of Thursday, net reserves rose by $1.2 billion to reach $13.7 billion. Between Monday and Thursday last week alone, the CBRT’s adjusted net reserves increased by $4.2 billion.
Aksoy also highlighted a shift in domestic liquidity dynamics. As the CBRT boosts reserves, it reduces the Turkish lira liquidity extended to the banking sector.
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