How Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman Vision Is Redrawing the Middle East

The Swords of Iron war between Israel and Hamas has triggered a chain reaction across the Middle East, reshaping old alliances and ushering in what some analysts now call a Sunni Revival—with Turkey emerging as its central force. As Iran’s ‘Shiite Crescent’ weakens under regional and internal pressures, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions are filling the void.

The Fall of the Shiite Crescent: A Strategic Collapse

Coined by Jordan’s King Abdullah in 2004, the term “Shiite Crescent” described a pro-Iranian alliance stretching from Tehran to Beirut, uniting Iran with Shiite forces across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. This alliance—often referred to as the Axis of Resistance—reached its zenith through Iran’s backing of Hezbollah, the Assad regime, and various militias.

But by late 2024, the alliance showed severe cracks. The collapse of Assad’s regime, a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy, cut off Iran’s land bridge to Lebanon and Hezbollah. Combined with crippling sanctions, domestic unrest, and military setbacks—including Israeli airstrikes on supply lines—Iran’s capacity to support its proxies diminished.

The October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel further backfired. While it temporarily spotlighted Iranian-supported groups, the overwhelming Israeli military retaliation decimated these proxies, accelerating the Crescent’s decline.

A Sunni Revival Under Turkey’s Banner

Into this vacuum steps Turkey, a Sunni-majority state with historic ties across the Arab world. Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottomanism—a blend of strategic pragmatism and historical ambition—is positioning Ankara to become the leader of a pan-Sunni bloc.

What is Neo-Ottomanism?

Neo-Ottomanism is Erdoğan’s vision of reviving Turkey’s Ottoman legacy. It combines domestic cultural revivalism—such as restoring Ottoman architecture and symbols—with an assertive foreign policy aimed at expanding Turkish influence in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and even Africa and the Gulf.

By aligning with Sunni actors such as Qatar, while positioning itself as a defender of Palestinians, Turkey challenges both Iran’s Shiite agenda and Saudi Arabia’s Sunni leadership. Ankara’s model offers military muscle, cultural resonance, and economic cooperation, in contrast to Riyadh’s conservative brand of Islam and Iran’s revolutionary Shiism.

Post-Assad Syria: A Neo-Ottoman Foothold

The fall of Damascus in 2024 redefined the battlefield. Turkey swiftly deployed military and political assets through its allied opposition groups, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This allowed Ankara to secure buffer zones, control border crossings, and prevent the rise of a Kurdish autonomous region near its borders.

In areas captured from Assad’s forces, Turkey has begun introducing Turkish education, currency, and governance models—marking a de facto extension of Turkish influence in northern Syria. This aligns with Erdoğan’s ambition to carve a Neo-Ottoman sphere of influence.

The Roadblocks: Economic Strains and Foreign Skepticism

Despite its regional ambitions, Turkey’s economic woes—including high inflation, currency devaluation, and youth unemployment—limit Erdoğan’s expansionist capabilities. Furthermore, Turkey’s NATO allies and Russia—still influential in Syria—remain cautious of Ankara’s assertive agenda.

The United States, while cooperating with Turkey on security and NATO fronts, is wary of its growing ties with Russia and assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

What This Means for Israel and the Region

The decline of Iran’s network could be a strategic win for Israel, but the rise of a Turkish-led Sunni bloc presents new challenges. While Iran’s influence relied heavily on proxy warfare, Turkey combines diplomacy, military presence, and soft power.

If Turkey succeeds in leading a Sunni Revival encompassing Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gulf states like Qatar, the balance of power in the region could shift dramatically. This would put Ankara and Jerusalem on increasingly divergent paths—especially if Turkey amplifies its anti-Israel rhetoric as part of its leadership claim over the Muslim world.

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