Household Inflation Expectations Drop Sharply in June 2025

In June 2025, Türkiye’s inflation outlook saw a significant shift as 12-month forward inflation expectations declined across all surveyed groups—most notably among households, according to data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

The survey shows that:

• Market participants’ expectations fell by 0.5 points to 24.6%

• Real sector expectations declined by 1.2 points to 39.8%

• Household inflation expectations dropped significantly by 6.9 points, settling at 53.0%

This marks one of the steepest monthly declines in household inflation sentiment in recent years, reflecting growing confidence in disinflation trends and the impact of ongoing monetary tightening policies.

More Households Expect Inflation to Fall

The survey also highlighted a rise in the share of households who believe inflation will decrease in the next 12 months. This group grew by 2.9 percentage points month-over-month, reaching 30.7% of respondents—indicating a positive shift in public expectations despite current price levels.

The improvement in forward-looking inflation sentiment may support broader efforts to break inflation inertia, enhance financial stability, and reinforce the credibility of monetary policy in Türkiye.