Green Growth Is No Longer a Choice — It Is Turkey’s Next Economic Breaking Point

By Economist Volkan Öngöl, columnist, DUNYA

Summary: As the global economy shifts toward sustainability, Turkey faces a decisive turning point. Green growth is now an economic necessity, not an environmental luxury. From energy dependency and the EU’s carbon border taxes to new green jobs and financing needs, Turkey must embrace green transformation to remain competitive and secure long-term prosperity.

A Global Economic Model at Its Limits

For decades, the world economy operated under the illusion that natural resources were limitless. That era is over. Environmental degradation, deepening climate risks and widening inequality have exposed the flaws in traditional growth models.

Today, the global economy is entering a new phase — sustainable growth and green transition. For Turkey, this shift is no longer optional. It is the foundation for future competitiveness, macroeconomic stability, and long-term prosperity.

Macroeconomic Reality: Risks and Opportunities

Green economy initiatives aim to reduce carbon emissions while supporting economic growth, increasing resource efficiency and mitigating inequality. In Turkey’s case, this has evolved from an aspirational “vision” into a strategic economic requirement.

Strategic frameworks such as the 12th Development Plan and the Green Deal Action Plan have already formalized this direction, placing circular production and climate-aligned policies at the center. Yet the transition carries both significant risks and transformative opportunities.

1. Current Account Deficit and Energy Dependency

Turkey’s most persistent macro weakness is its energy-driven current-account deficit. Green transition directly targets this vulnerability.

Aggressive investment in solar, wind and geothermal capacity can permanently reduce Turkey’s energy import bill. Localizing clean-energy technologies will also support new, high-value manufacturing sectors, such as:

• battery technologies,

• energy storage infrastructure,

• grid modernization.

A cleaner energy system is not only an environmental priority but a strategic industrial opportunity.

2. The Future of Exports and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

The EU — Turkey’s largest export market — has already launched the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). High-emission Turkish exporters face new financial penalties, weakening their competitiveness.

But CBAM is also a catalyst.

Firms that adopt green standards early can:

• protect market share in the EU,

• enter new global markets that increasingly demand low-carbon production,

• improve brand value and resilience.

In modern trade, sustainability is competitiveness.

3. Green Jobs and Human Capital

Sectors tied to renewable energy, energy efficiency, recycling and waste management are expanding rapidly worldwide — and Turkey is no exception.

International projections suggest hundreds of thousands of new green jobs could emerge in Turkey by 2030. But these positions require a workforce trained in:

• sustainable production,

• clean technologies,

• digital-environmental skills.

This means vocational training systems and university curricula must adapt urgently to match the country’s new industrial trajectory.

The Policy Dimension: Financing and Carbon Pricing

Green transformation requires major capital investment. To access global sustainable finance, Turkey must ensure macroeconomic stability while scaling up:

• green bond issuance,

• sustainability-linked loans,

• climate-aligned international funding mechanisms.

The most critical structural tool will be carbon pricing. Whether through an emissions-trading system or a carbon tax, Turkey needs a transparent, credible mechanism to guide high-emission sectors toward a low-carbon path.

For SMEs, dedicated technical and financial support will be essential to ensure that green transition is inclusive and not limited to large corporations.

The Cost of Delay Will Be Severe

For Turkey, the green economy is not a policy preference — it is the only viable direction for a state seeking long-term economic security. Although the transition brings short-term adjustment costs, the long-term gains include:

• stronger global competitiveness,

• lasting energy security,

• a lower current-account deficit,

• a more resilient macroeconomic structure.

Delaying this shift will raise costs, shrink export markets and increase Turkey’s exposure to global risks.

With strategic policymaking, determined leadership and deep public–private cooperation, green transformation can become the new, durable foundation of Turkey’s growth story.

PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY and content at Twitter: @AtillaEng.
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel.