Global Markets Rally, But Borsa İstanbul Stalls: Why Can’t BIST 100 Break the 11,605 Ceiling?

While global financial markets closed out a high-octane week with maintained optimism, Borsa İstanbul remains in a curious state of inertia. Despite a backdrop of cooling inflation, a significant drop in Turkey’s risk premium (CDS), and a generally positive international atmosphere, the BIST 100 index is struggling to recapture its previous glory.

The Global Context: “Central Banks Delivered No Surprises”

The past week was dominated by a heavy agenda, including U.S. inflation data and interest rate decisions from the UK, Eurozone, and Japan. As expected:

• The ECB held rates steady at 2.15%.

• The Bank of England implemented a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%.

• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised rates to 0.75%—the highest in 30 years—but did so with enough “forward guidance” to prevent a repeat of the August 5 “carry trade” shock.

In the U.S., inflation (CPI) came in below expectations for November. Although some analysts warn that government shutdown periods may have blurred the data quality, markets chose to see the “glass half full,” fueling a rally in Western equities.

Turkish Equities: Something Is Brewing — But What, and When?

The Borsa İstanbul Paradox: All Data Positive, No Momentum

Despite the favorable global wind, Borsa İstanbul (BIST 100) has yet to breach its technical peak of 11,605. Columnist Zeynep Balcı notes that the usual year-end or New Year rally expectations have largely faded from market discourse.

The paradox is stark: inflation and interest rates are trending downward, political tensions have eased, and Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) has plummeted to 206—a massive improvement from the 650–700 levels seen just a few years ago. So, why isn’t the index gaining strength?

The Verdict: No Fresh Liquidity, No Trust

The answer, according to Balcı, is a lack of fresh capital. “Price rises with demand,” she argues, pointing to two main culprits for the current stagnation:

1. Domestic Diversion: Local investors are currently preoccupied with gold, silver, and high deposit rates, leaving little room for equity appetite.

2. Foreign Absence: Foreign investors’ share in the BIST 100 remains stuck at roughly 36-37%. While there was a minor net inflow of $179 million into stocks over the last two weeks, the volume is far too low to move the needle for a major index.

Instead of equities, foreign capital appears to be favoring Turkish bonds, likely betting on the continuation of the “carry trade” and the downward trajectory of local interest rates.

Technical Outlook: The 11,605 Barrier

From a technical standpoint, the BIST 100 is holding its “exit trend” but hitting a wall at resistance levels.

• Critical Resistance: The 11,605 mark is the ultimate hurdle. Until this level is surpassed with significant volume, the market is unlikely to gain the momentum needed for a sustained breakout.

• Support Zones: Immediate supports are identified at 11,250 and the 11,100–11,000 range.

The Rivalry: Gold and Silver as “Safe Havens”

Borsa İstanbul is also losing the battle for attention against precious metals. Silver has been the “champion” of the year due to supply shortages and high demand, while Gold continues to benefit from a weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions—most notably the brewing U.S.-Venezuela friction. If these tensions escalate into conflict, the flight to these “safe havens” will likely further starve the stock market of liquidity.

Conclusion: Waiting for a “Playable” Grade

For Borsa İstanbul to break its deadlock in 2026, the rhetoric needs to shift toward results. While the decline in risk premiums is a vital first step, the market is waiting for a potential credit rating upgrade to “Investment Grade.” Until then, the index seems destined to oscillate between its current support levels and the formidable 11,605 resistance, waiting for the “big money” to finally return to the table.