Gedik Research: Macro View Treasury Borrowing Program / November-January

The Treasury aims for a strong borrowing program to manage the heavy redemption schedule in January 2026.

The Treasury projects domestic debt repayments of TRY 785 billion against planned domestic borrowing exceeding TRY 848 billion for the November–January period. 

►The Treasury announced its November–January financing program at the end of October. Accordingly, it will make domestic debt repayments of TRY 95 billion and external debt repayments equivalent to TRY 138 billion in October. In return, it targets borrowing of TRY 128 billion through six auctions, corresponding to a domestic debt rollover ratio of around 135%.

► For the entire November–January period, the Treasury plans to make domestic debt repayments totaling TRY 785 billion—comprising TRY 175 billion in principal and TRY 610 billion in interest payments. External debt repayments are projected to amount to approximately TRY 286 billion in lira terms. The Treasury plans to borrow more than TRY 848 billion domestically, implying a rollover ratio of roughly 120.4%. Based on these figures, the Treasury’s net domestic borrowing (new bond issuance) during this period is expected to reach around TRY 673 billion.

► In January 2026, domestic debt repayments are projected to rise sharply to about TRY 582 billion, driven by both high interest costs (TRY 406.7 billion) and heavy principal repayments (TRY 174.9 billion). Compared to November and December, this increase indicates that the Treasury faces a significant concentration of redemptions at the beginning of the year. During this period, planned market borrowing also increases markedly to TRY 584 billion, with the domestic debt rollover ratio expected to stand at around 100.4%.

The domestic debt rollover ratio stood at 125.5% in the January–October period. 

► In the first ten months of the year, the Treasury made domestic debt repayments of approximately TRY 2.3 trillion while borrowing over TRY 2.9 trillion domestically—around TRY 165 billion above the initially planned amount. Consequently, the domestic debt rollover ratio, which had stood at 131.9% as of the January–September period, declined to 125.5% in January–October due to domestic borrowing in October being roughly TRY 90 billion below the plan. The fact that the cash budget deficit exceeded TRY 359 billion as of September has been a key factor driving the Treasury’s higher borrowing needs during the month. Specifically, the cash budget deficit reached over TRY 1.6 trillion in the January–September period, while the cash-based primary deficit stood at around TRY 76 billion.

► Considering that the Treasury made external debt repayments of nearly USD 17 billion in the first ten months while issuing USD 8.75 billion (USD 2.25 billion in October) and EUR 1.50 billion in Eurobonds, as well as USD 2.5 billion in lease certificates, and taking into account changes in the Treasury’s FX cash position, it can be inferred that part of the domestic borrowing was allocated toward external debt repayments.

Treasury’s financing need will remain elevated

► According to the Treasury’s debt repayment projections extending through September 2026, total domestic debt repayments are projected to reach nearly TRY 4.2 trillion between October 2025 and September 2026. Considering the likely issuance of short-term bills, this figure is expected to be exceeded. During the same period, external debt repayments are estimated to surpass USD 21.5 billion, suggesting that part of the Treasury’s domestic borrowing will likely be redirected toward meeting external debt obligations. Taking into account the projected cash-based primary deficit as well, we estimate that the Treasury’s domestic borrowing requirement could reach—or even exceed—TRY 4.5 trillion by the end of September 2026. This corresponds to an average monthly borrowing need of around TRY 370–380 billion, implying that the domestic debt rollover ratio could remain above 120%.