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Fresh Polls Deliver Bad News for Erdoğan and AKP

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Summary:


As early election debates intensify in Turkey, new surveys show the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) falling behind the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Recent polls by ORC and GÜNDEMAR reveal declining support for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a tightening political landscape. Additional findings highlight growing discontent within AKP’s own voter base over the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

ORC Poll: CHP Edges Ahead of AKP

According to ORC Research’s September survey, conducted between September 12–14 across 26 provinces with 3,400 participants, the CHP took the lead with 32.5%, while the AKP trailed at 29.9%.

Other notable results:

  • DEM Party: 7.9%

  • MHP: 7.5%

  • İYİ Party: 5.9%

  • Victory Party: 3.6%

  • New Welfare Party: 2.9%

  • National & Local Party: 2.3%

  • Felicity Party: 1.9%

  • Key Party: 1.8%

  • BBP: 1.6%

  • Others: 2.2%

The poll confirms a narrowing political balance, with the CHP maintaining a slim but symbolic lead.

GÜNDEMAR Poll: CHP Widens the Gap

A separate survey by GÜNDEMAR, carried out August 20–26 with 2,225 respondents in 60 cities, recorded even sharper results:

  • CHP: 35.4%

  • AKP: 30.2%

  • DEM Party: 8.3%

  • Victory Party: 6.6%

  • MHP: 6.3%

  • İYİ Party: 4.1%

  • New Welfare: 3.3%

The findings show the CHP leading by more than five points nationwide.

Presidential Race Scenarios: Erdoğan Trails Opposition

The same survey tested hypothetical presidential matchups between Erdoğan and CHP figures. Results show Erdoğan losing in every scenario:

  • Özgür Özel vs. Erdoğan: Özel 51.5% – Erdoğan 48.5%

  • Similar outcomes were reported for Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş.

These figures reinforce the perception that Erdoğan’s electoral strength is weakening.

Imamoğlu’s Imprisonment Divides AKP Base

A third study, conducted by political scientist Prof. Dr. Behçet Yalın Özkara with 10,144 participants, focused on public sentiment regarding the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Key findings:

  • Support for the statement “The imprisonment is definitely justified” fell from 45.5% in an earlier poll to around 38.5–39%.

  • Among AKP voters, backing for the decision dropped from 68.7% to 56.5%.

  • Opposition to the imprisonment grew, with CHP voters maintaining near-unanimous resistance (90–95%).

Özkara noted that Erdoğan is struggling to convince his own voter base that the case is purely legal rather than political — a trend that could further erode AKP’s support.

Analysts: Erdoğan Losing Control of Narrative

Columnist Elif Çakır (Karar) echoed these findings, stressing that Erdoğan’s repeated insistence that “we are not part of this process” has failed to resonate even with loyal AKP supporters.

According to recent KONDA research, nearly 60% of the public believes the legal cases against CHP municipalities are politically motivated and that Erdoğan himself is behind the crackdown. This marks a rise from 55% earlier in the year, underscoring Erdoğan’s difficulty in shaping the narrative.

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