Falling Oil Prices Offer Türkiye Relief, But Trade Wars Pose New Economic Risks

The sharp 10% plunge in oil prices following U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on April 2 may provide significant economic relief for energy-importing countries like Türkiye, according to energy sector analysts.

Brent crude prices, which tumbled to $58.22 per barrel on April 9 before rebounding to $65.47 later that day, continue to fluctuate amid U.S.-China trade tensions and Iran-related supply concerns. Overall, Brent crude has recorded a 10.5% cumulative decline since the start of April, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has dropped 10.7% over the same period.

Türkiye’s Energy Bill Could See Major Relief

Fereydoun Barkeshli, President of the Vienna Energy Research Institute, told Anadolu Agency that Türkiye, as a net energy importer, could significantly benefit from cheaper oil.

According to Türkiye’s Trade Ministry, energy imports are a major driver of the country’s trade deficit. In March 2025:

• Excluding energy, Türkiye’s exports-to-imports ratio rose to 89.1%.

• Including energy, the ratio dropped to 76.3%, highlighting the burden energy costs place on the economy.

Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has consistently noted that lower energy prices could help narrow the current account deficit, a long-standing vulnerability for Türkiye’s economy.

Global Slowdown Risk Looms Despite Oil Price Gains

While cheaper oil could reduce Türkiye’s energy costs, Barkeshli warned that the broader risks of a global economic slowdown—triggered by Trump’s tariffs—could negatively affect Türkiye’s growth prospects.

“The decline in oil prices could ease Türkiye’s energy bill. However, a slowdown in global trade and investment could weigh on the country’s economic expansion,” Barkeshli said.

He also highlighted that Trump’s escalating trade war with China signals a shift toward a new global economic order, likely leading to:

• Greater regional economic cooperation

• Emerging free trade zones in Eurasia

• Reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar

• The development of regional currency frameworks

Türkiye Positioned Safely for Now, But Long-Term Strategy Needed

Despite short-term advantages from falling oil prices, Türkiye must prepare for a future of geopolitical economic shifts. Barkeshli emphasized that regional partnerships and economic diversification will be key to sustaining growth in a potentially fragmented global economy.

As global uncertainties rise, Türkiye’s ability to capitalize on cheaper energy while adapting to new trade dynamics will be critical for maintaining macroeconomic stability.