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EU Shifts Defense Focus Amid US Retreat, Eyes Türkiye as Key Partner in SAFE Strategy

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In the wake of President Donald Trump’s distancing of the United States from European defense responsibilities, the European Union has unveiled a bold plan to secure its future through increased defense spending, joint arms production, and strategic cooperation—including potential industrial collaboration with Türkiye.

The SAFE Strategy: A €150 Billion Defense Vision for 2030

On March 19, the European Commission introduced the European Security Action (SAFE), a €150 billion ($170.59 billion) defense initiative rooted in the White Paper that aims to:

  • Boost EU defense autonomy

  • Expand production capacities across the bloc

  • Encourage cross-border industrial partnerships

While the SAFE package primarily targets EU member states, candidate countries like Türkiye are also eligible to participate under Article 17, which allows broader involvement in EU security and defense efforts.

Türkiye’s Role: Strategic and Industrial Potential

A long-standing NATO ally and EU accession candidate, Türkiye has seen a sharp rise in defense manufacturing, particularly in:

  • Armed drones

  • Naval systems

  • Missile technologies

“Türkiye has done a great job in recent years, especially with UAV production,” said Ester Sabatino, a defense analyst at IISS.

Yet, political sensitivities remain. While EU officials acknowledge Türkiye’s industrial potential, full integration hinges on further legal and structural conditions, including:

  • Creating “firewall” subsidiaries within the EU

  • Complying with procurement and security criteria

  • Signing a formal defense partnership agreement

SAFE Participation Rules: Who Can Join?

According to European Commission defense spokesperson Thomas Regnier:

  • SAFE allows participation from EU states, EFTA countries (e.g., Switzerland, Norway), Ukraine, and nations with existing security partnerships (e.g., Japan, Albania, South Korea)

  • Candidate countries, such as Türkiye, can provide up to 35% of joint defense products without a formal partnership

  • Any contribution beyond that threshold requires a Security and Defense Partnership

Greek Objections May Complicate Türkiye’s Inclusion

Despite Türkiye’s eligibility, Greece has reportedly raised objections within Brussels, lobbying to tighten participation rules under the SAFE framework. Any formal defense partnership with Türkiye would require unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states—making Greece’s position especially influential.

What’s at Stake at NATO’s June Summit?

As NATO leaders prepare to meet this June, European defense independence will top the agenda. With the US gradually stepping back, the urgency for a self-reliant European security framework is growing—and Türkiye’s inclusion in SAFE could be a key decision point.

“If it becomes clear that US support will decline, EU countries will need to increase investments, opening doors for Türkiye,” Sabatino noted.

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