EU Delivers Reality Check to Erdoğan on Turkey’s Strategic Limits
EU
In a decisive diplomatic message, the European Union has drawn clear limits on Turkey’s strategic relevance under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Brussels’ move served as a stark reminder to Ankara: “Don’t overestimate your leverage.” By doing so, the EU effectively dismantled Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s narrative that “the EU needs Turkey” and dismissed their claims about “small nations hiding behind the U.S.”
This unexpected geopolitical shift has altered the dynamics of EU-Turkey negotiations. Erdoğan and Fidan will now have to return to the security-oriented bargaining table after suffering a symbolic defeat. Should they respond by withdrawing from security cooperation altogether, it would mean abandoning their previous assertive rhetoric, effectively conceding strategic ground to the EU.
End of Value-Based Dialogue, Rise of Strategic Disruption
The current state of EU-Turkey relations has long deviated from value-based diplomacy. The membership process has been shelved for years, and Ankara has instead sought to reposition the relationship within a new global geopolitical framework favorable to its interests.
However, the EU’s recent maneuver delivered a message at the very moment Erdoğan claimed maximum influence in the region—shattering the illusion of transactional diplomacy. Brussels has made it clear: tactical gains and short-term deals won’t reshape long-term strategic balance.
EU’s Global Gateway Plan Deals Triple Blow to Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy
Perhaps the most significant blow came with the EU’s decision to embed recognition of Greek Cyprus into its new Central Asia Global Gateway investment strategy. The move was a geopolitical masterstroke, simultaneously damaging Turkey’s standing in three key regions: Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Europe.
This unprecedented strategic collapse on three fronts marks a historical low in Turkish foreign policy—one that critics argue is unique to the Erdoğan era. For a government that prides itself on geopolitical agility and regional influence, the EU’s coordinated pushback undermined its core foreign policy ambitions.
