Skip to content
News from Turkey

Esfender Korkmaz: Turkey Has Failed to Create Jobs for 25 Years

issizlik

Summary: In the third quarter of 2025, Turkey’s unemployment rate stood at 8.5% and the employment rate at just 49%. Economist Esfender Korkmaz argues that headline unemployment figures mask a much larger pool of “invisible unemployed,” and that Turkey’s chronic failure to generate jobs over the last two decades has pushed it far behind global and OECD standards. Structural reforms—ranging from restoring institutional trust to redesigning education and investment policies—are essential, he says.

Turkey’s Headline Unemployment Conceals a Much Bigger Problem

Turkey’s unemployment rate for Q3 2025 (July–September) was officially reported at 8.5%, with an employment rate of 49%. While these figures already fall short of global standards, Korkmaz notes that they also conceal a sizable number of people who are out of the labor force but effectively unemployed.

Globally, unemployment hovers around 5%. By contrast, Turkey’s labor market shows several worrying trends:

  • The number of people officially classified as unemployed has fallen,

  • Yet the number of people who have given up looking for work has risen sharply,

  • And those who are not actively searching but would accept a job immediately have also increased.

Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2025:

  • Official unemployment fell by 208,000,

  • The number of people who lost hope of finding a job rose by 672,000,

  • Those not searching but willing to work rose by 1.025 million,

  • Combined, these “hidden unemployed” increased by 1.697 million.

In Q3 2025, Turkey had:

  • 3.01 million officially unemployed,

  • 4.948 million “unofficial” unemployed,

  • Bringing the true unemployed population to nearly 8 million.

Korkmaz argues that this presents two major issues:

  1. Any methodology that fails to classify these millions as unemployed risks underestimating Turkey’s real labor-market distress.

  2. Policies must target the full 7.965 million jobless individuals—not just the officially counted 3 million.

Turkey Is Falling Behind the World in Employment

Turkey’s employment rate stands at 49%, far below:

  • OECD average: 70.3%

  • EU average: 73%

Employment maps from ILO and the World Bank place Turkey among the lowest-employment countries globally.

Over the last 22 years, Turkey’s population increased by 19.9 million, yet total job creation reached only 11.4 million. Based on stable education-enrollment ratios, this means 8.47 million people effectively remained outside employment.

Korkmaz summarizes this as evidence that Turkey has failed to create sufficient jobs for a quarter of a century.

Is Unemployment Turkey’s Destiny?

According to Korkmaz, the government’s Medium-Term Program offers no coherent employment model, relying instead on broad intentions and numerical targets.

He argues that raising employment cannot be achieved with isolated policy measures. Instead, Turkey needs a comprehensive economic and social plan aligned with a three-year stability program. He highlights three priority actions:

1. Increase Domestic Savings and Investments

Foreign direct investment has dwindled due to political risk and eroding institutional trust. Domestic capital is also leaving the country.
To restore the investment climate, Korkmaz calls for structural reforms, including:

  • A return to the parliamentary system,

  • Strengthening rule of law and judicial independence,

  • Broad governance reforms that rebuild domestic and international confidence.

2. Reduce the Rising Tax Burden on Savings

Korkmaz argues that heavy taxation discourages savings and investment.
Policy tools should include:

  • Targeted investment incentives,

  • Import substitution in sectors heavily dependent on imported inputs.

3. Conduct Labor-Force Planning in Education

Turkey must project future labor-market needs and align the education system with these projections.
This includes:

  • Adjusting curricula and graduate output to long-term demand,

  • Removing ideological content from education,

  • Building a workforce capable of supporting higher-value economic activity.

PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.


Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel.

Related articles