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Ertuğrul Özkök Analyzes Panorama Poll: Who’s Gaining, Who’s Fading in Turkish Politics?

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Journalist Ertuğrul Özkök has shared his insights on the latest Panorama poll, offering a sharp take on how Türkiye’s political landscape is shifting post-March 19—a date he refers to as a “judicial coup.” According to Özkök, the impact of this turning point is reshaping party support, voter behavior, and institutional trust.

President Erdoğan’s remark on his flight from Italy—“Let’s see how many more CHP figures will be wiped out on the road to the presidency”—sparked Özkök’s deeper question: Who is really losing ground?

Key Finding: March 19 Backfired—Imamoğlu’s Popularity Surges

While some assumed the March 19 judicial intervention would damage Ekrem İmamoğlu, the data suggests otherwise. Imamoğlu’s support as a preferred presidential candidate jumped from 15% to 24%, overtaking Mansur Yavaş and even narrowing the gap with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose support also climbed modestly—from 17% to 19%.

Özkök argues this shows increasing polarization is benefiting both CHP and AKP, but with CHP gaining more momentum, especially through Imamoğlu’s perceived victimhood.

CHP Gains Ground, Especially Among Youth and Low-Income Voters

  • CHP’s vote share has risen 6 points, surpassing 30%, while AKP’s has also grown slightly to 27%.

  • Among new voters (those who will vote for the first time in 2028), CHP leads AKP 60% to 20%.

  • CHP is now outperforming AKP among low-income groups, reversing a long-standing trend.

Panorama CEO Osman Sert noted that the old paradigm—“CHP gains as education rises, AKP gains as income falls”—no longer holds. CHP is now drawing support across all education levels.

“This isn’t just monthly fluctuation—it’s a structural shift,” Sert commented.

Judiciary Faces Credibility Crisis

Public sentiment around the March 19 detentions is clear:

  • Twice as many respondents believe the arrests were unjustified as those who support them.

  • The move is seen widely as a political intervention, with Erdoğan’s harsh rhetoric failing to sway voters.

Trust in the judiciary is deteriorating, with only the Constitutional Court maintaining credibility. Özkök warns this could mark a dangerous shift from an elected democracy to governance by appointed judges.

Türkiye’s Political System Under Strain: Time to Reconsider Parliamentary Rule?

Özkök draws several conclusions from the data:

  1. Two-party polarization (CHP vs. AKP) is solidifying.

  2. The presidential system is losing public favor, as 71% now say the economy is deteriorating.

  3. The path forward may lie in CHP leader Özgür Özel’s call to restore the parliamentary system.

  4. AKP must distance itself from the “March 19 photo” of judicial overreach or risk prolonged backlash.

  5. The fastest de-escalation, Özkök suggests, is to allow Imamoğlu and others to stand trial without detention.

“This moment may work for CHP all the way to 2028 unless the government repositions quickly,” Özkök writes.

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