Dollar/TL Tops 40 Again Amid Fed Speculation and Political Uncertainty

The Turkish lira began the week under pressure as the USD/TRY exchange rate pushed back above the psychological threshold of 40, reflecting a combination of global monetary expectations and domestic political tensions.

On the first trading day of the week, the USD/TRY pair climbed approximately 0.3% from Friday’s close, briefly touching an intra-day high of 40.0012 before settling at 39.9808 around 10:30 AM local time.

Global Rate Expectations and Türkiye’s Political Climate Drive Momentum

The recent uptick in the dollar-to-lira exchange rate comes amid renewed market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in the near future. Simultaneously, local political developments continue to influence investor sentiment.

After trading within a tight range in recent weeks, the dollar once again tested the 40 mark, briefly surpassing it before retreating. Analysts describe this threshold as a psychological resistance level closely watched by both traders and policymakers.

March Record Still Unbroken, But Volatility Remains

The record high for the USD/TRY pair in 2025 occurred on March 19, when the exchange rate spiked to 41.6416—an all-time high. This surge followed the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, which triggered political unrest and market turbulence.

On that day, panic buying of foreign currency led to rapid depreciation of the lira, exposing the volatility of Türkiye’s financial markets under political strain. While the current level remains below March’s record, the renewed climb above 40 underscores ongoing fragility in currency markets.