COMMENTARY | Trump’s Middle East Visit Offers Ankara a Glimmer of Hope for Resetting US Ties

As US President Donald Trump makes his first official trip to the Middle East in his second term — visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates between May 13–16 — attention is once again fixed on Washington’s evolving policy toward the region. At a moment of diplomatic flux and realignment, Ankara is watching closely. And for the first time in over a decade, Turkey believes it has a genuine opportunity to repair its fractured relationship with the United States.

From Strategic Partnership to Strategic Estrangement

Tensions between Turkey and the US have simmered for over a decade, driven by divergences on Iran, Syria, Russia, and China. The rupture deepened during the 2014 campaign against the Islamic State (ISIS), when Washington armed Syrian Kurdish groups that Ankara links to the outlawed PKK. Turkey’s refusal to fully cooperate at İncirlik Airbase exacerbated mistrust. This was followed by Ankara’s controversial purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, triggering sanctions under CAATSA and its removal from the F-35 fighter jet program.

Even Turkey’s early support for Ukraine in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion, failed to rebuild trust. Ankara’s simultaneous expansion of energy and trade ties with Moscow, and billion-dollar deals with China in EVs and telecoms, only intensified Washington’s concerns. By the time Trump returned to office in early 2025, Turkish officials were bracing for further strain.

But what came next was unexpected.

A Surprising Opportunity in Trump’s Second Term

Only a few months into his new term, Trump is emerging as a potential partner. For Ankara, three key shifts have raised hopes:

• A Softer Line on Iran: Trump’s rejection of Israeli calls to launch strikes on Iran has been welcomed by Turkish officials. Many in Ankara interpret this restraint as a sign that Trump is leaning toward a diplomatic approach reminiscent of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. Such a path could revive Turkey-Iran trade and reduce sanctions-related tensions in the region.

• Relaxed Pressure Over Russia: Trump’s toned-down posture toward Moscow — including a softening of previous US opposition to Nord Stream 2 — has been another green light for Ankara. Turkish officials now speculate that their expanding trade with Russia, as well as the S-400 issue, may no longer be deal-breakers. Some even believe a window has opened to revisit US-Turkey defense cooperation.

• A Pragmatic Approach to China: While Trump has launched sweeping tariffs, Ankara is relieved to see hardline China hawks pushed to the sidelines. With Turkey now subjected to a baseline 10% export tariff — lower than the 20–25% slapped on China, the EU, and Japan — Turkish exporters have largely withstood the pressure. Moreover, Turkey’s rising profile as a global supply chain hub, particularly in renewables, has helped cushion the blow.

Syria: The Centerpiece of Ankara’s New Pitch

But Ankara’s most ambitious play lies in post-Assad Syria. Turkish officials are floating a new deal: allow Turkey to spearhead counter-ISIS operations, while reintegrating Syrian Kurdish fighters into a unified national army structure. In return, Turkey signals that Iranian influence in Syria is waning — a message aimed at calming US fears.

The boldest proposal involves relocating the S-400 systems, long a thorn in the bilateral relationship, to a Syrian military base under Turkish control. The logic is simple: by removing the Russian systems from Turkish soil, Ankara could offer Trump the political space to lift CAATSA sanctions and restore Turkey’s place in the F-35 program. Turkish officials are betting that Syria — once the epicenter of US-Turkey tension — could become the catalyst for reconciliation.

Risks Still Loom Large

Despite the optimism, Ankara knows the landscape is fraught with risks. A US military strike on Iran could drag Turkey into a wider conflict. Any miscalculation in Syria might spark confrontation with Israel. A return to aggressive sanctions on Russian energy could rattle Turkey’s already fragile economy.

Yet, amid all this uncertainty, one thing is clear: Ankara sees Trump as a negotiator it can do business with. The transactional nature of his diplomacy — unpredictable but flexible — offers a rare opening for Turkey to reset relations with its most important NATO ally.

Conclusion: A Window, However Narrow

After more than a decade of deteriorating ties, Ankara believes the moment has come. With Trump in office and key geopolitical files in motion — from Iran to Syria to trade policy — Turkey is preparing to walk through the narrow door that’s now ajar. Whether that door remains open will depend on the choices both governments make in the coming months.

By Gonul Tol

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