COMMENTARY: Gonul Tol Warns America: Trump is Erdogan on Steroids

Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey Program, offers a chilling warning to Americans: what took Recep Tayyip Erdogan two decades to accomplish in Turkey, Donald Trump may achieve in just a few short years—if he hasn’t already started.

Gonul Tol

Tol, who once held cautious optimism for Erdogan’s early reforms, admits she misread the Islamist leader’s intentions. Like many Turks in the early 2000s, she welcomed Erdogan’s promises of transparency, anti-corruption, and democratic reform. But in hindsight, those reforms were never about deepening democracy. They were calculated moves to dismantle institutional checks, one by one, and consolidate absolute power.

She now sees eerie parallels unfolding in her adopted country, the United States—but on fast-forward. “People say Trump can’t do in four years what Erdogan did in twenty,” Tol writes. “But Erdogan began from weakness. Trump begins from strength.”

Erdogan took power in 2002 facing entrenched opposition from the military, judiciary, and media. His Islamist party was fledgling, his influence limited. But through a mixture of EU-backed democratic reforms and strategic backroom deals, Erdogan managed to neuter Turkey’s powerful military, co-opt the judiciary, and take control of the media.

Trump, on the other hand, returns to office with the Republican Party largely unified behind him, right-wing media acting as an amplifier rather than a watchdog, and growing control over critical institutions. In just his first four months back in office, Trump has taken unprecedented steps: reshuffling military leadership, purging the Justice Department, and pardoning over 1,600 people linked to the January 6 insurrection. For Tol, the pattern is clear.

Erdogan’s consolidation of power began with the military. Historically, Turkey’s armed forces acted as the guardians of secularism, even deposing elected governments when they deemed it necessary. Erdogan, with help from European Union accession requirements, championed reforms to reduce military influence. But simultaneously, he used loyal prosecutors and judges to launch high-profile trials against top generals, weakening the institution from within.

Once the military was subdued, Erdogan moved on to the judiciary. Under the guise of reform, his party pushed constitutional amendments that centralized control over court appointments. The public, hopeful for independence from military-era judges, voted yes. But the reforms gave Erdogan even more control over the courts, which were soon stacked with loyalists.

Then came the media. Outlets critical of Erdogan, particularly those owned by secular business magnates like Aydin Dogan, were hit with massive tax fines, advertising bans, and legal threats. Eventually, ownership of major newspapers and TV channels was transferred to pro-government hands, often via state banks or politically-motivated business deals.

Erdogan also captured the economy. He rewrote procurement laws to steer lucrative public contracts to five conglomerates loyal to him. These companies in turn funded pro-government charities, backed Erdogan-aligned media, and pressured workers to support the ruling party.

Tol sees Trump moving down the same path—but much faster. In mere months, he has:

• Fired top military brass and installed loyalists
• Politicized the Department of Justice, gutting key ethics and corruption units
• Shifted control of regulatory bodies like the FCC and FTC to political allies
• Partnered with tech billionaire Elon Musk to influence federal policy and contracts
• Targeted universities, NGOs, and law firms seen as adversarial

And Congress? According to Tol, it has largely abdicated its role as a check on executive overreach. While Republicans follow Trump unquestioningly, Democrats appear fragmented and reactive.

What makes the comparison more alarming is that Tol once believed in Erdogan. She was no natural ally to a politician with Islamist roots, but she saw hope in his initial democratic rhetoric. Many in Turkey made the same mistake: placing faith in early reforms, even as Erdogan slowly co-opted institutions.

Those early victories gave him the appearance of legitimacy. Economic growth and popular mandates emboldened him. Meanwhile, a divided and elitist opposition failed to offer an alternative that resonated with everyday Turks.

The cost, Tol says, has been devastating. Across Turkish society, people now live under a system where dissent is criminalized, the media is muzzled, and the rule of law is all but gone. Protests continue, but reversing the damage has proven far harder than preventing it would have been.

For the United States, the lesson is clear: the time to resist is now. “Waiting is dangerous,” Tol argues. “Only early, sustained, and collective resistance can prevent the United States from following the same dark path.”

That resistance, she insists, must extend beyond cultural flashpoints and partisan divides. The recent “Hands Off” protests were a good start, but the movement must connect with broader economic discontent. The Democratic Party must treat the 2026 midterms as a last stand. Business leaders must speak out against the economic costs of autocracy. Universities, nonprofits, and civil society must stop retreating.

Democracy, Tol concludes, is not self-sustaining. It demands vigilance. It demands participation. And in today’s United States, it demands urgency.

Gonul Tol is the author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria.

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