Columnist Claims U.S. ‘Approved’ Dynasty  for Türkiye, Citing Barrack’s Remarks

A debate has resurfaced in Türkiye after U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and Syria Envoy Tom Barrack suggested that monarchy, rather than democracy, represents the most effective governance model for the Middle East. The comments, widely circulated in Turkish media, have triggered renewed discussion over foreign influence and succession scenarios in regional politics.

In a recent column, Turkish writer Sabahattin Önkibar argued that Barrack’s remarks may signal U.S. support for what he describes as an “Aliyev-style model” for Türkiye—a reference to Azerbaijan, where İlham Aliyev succeeded his father Heydar Aliyev as president. Önkibar compared this alleged framework to transitions in other regional states such as Syria, where Bashar al-Assad took office following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad.

Alleged Scenario Involving Bilal Erdoğan

According to Önkibar, an unnamed former AK Party minister claimed that political actors within the ruling party’s conservative wing are considering a succession strategy involving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s son, Bilal Erdoğan.

The columnist asserts that:

• Bilal Erdoğan could first be appointed vice president with responsibility for selected policy areas,

• Media outlets close to the presidency would then work to build public recognition and legitimacy,

• A narrative citing “the president’s health issues” could be used to transfer executive authority to the vice president,

• The plan would aim to prepare Bilal Erdoğan as a future contender ahead of the 2028 election or an earlier snap vote.

Önkibar stresses that this alleged roadmap would not apply to the current election cycle, and insists that President Erdoğan himself would still be expected to run in the next national vote.

None of these claims have been confirmed by Turkish officials. The presidency and the AK Party have not commented on the assertions, and there is no independent evidence indicating that such a succession design is under consideration.

Barrack’s Remarks Continue to Draw Attention

Ambassador Barrack previously challenged the viability of the nation-state model in parts of the Middle East, but his recent statement—“the best model for the region is not democracy but monarchy”—has drawn particular scrutiny. Analysts note that his comments reflect a broader U.S. debate about political stability in conflict-prone regions, rather than a formal policy proposal.

Still, in Türkiye, the remarks have been interpreted by some commentators as an indirect message about Washington’s views on long-term governance models across the Middle East.

A Sensitive Topic in Turkish Politics

Succession-related speculation has periodically surfaced in Türkiye’s domestic political conversation, especially during periods of regional uncertainty or heightened geopolitical pressure. Analysts caution that such claims often reflect internal political rivalry, media sensationalism, or foreign policy commentary rather than actionable plans.

For now, the discussion remains rooted in Önkibar’s interpretation of Barrack’s statements and the alleged comments of unnamed political figures—none of which have been validated by official channels.

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