August Polls Stun AKP: Turks Say No Trust in Justice, Erdogan Losing Ground

Fresh surveys show widespread disillusionment with government and politics; Erdoğan trails key CHP rivals in presidential matchups.

Daily Struggles Define Public Mood

The Saros Organization for Political and Social Research (SAROS) has released its August 2025 “Turkey Agenda and Politics Survey”, conducted with 7,487 participants across 26 provinces.

One of the most striking questions was: “What is the first thing you think of when you wake up?”

• 30.7% answered basic needs/economy

• 13.6%: “I hope nothing bad happens today”

• 7.2%: “What will happen today?”

• 3.7%: “How will I pay my debts?”

When asked “What is Turkey’s most important problem?”:

• 37.2% said the economy

• 15.6% pointed to justice and rule of law

• 10.8% cited the presidential system/government itself

The findings highlight a population struggling with cost of living, insecurity, and mistrust of institutions. Nearly one in three wakes up thinking about bills.

No Confidence in Political Solutions

To the question “Which party can solve Turkey’s problems?”:

• 48.7%: None

• 14.5%: AKP

• 14.3%: CHP

• 3.6%: İYİ Party

• 3.5%: New Welfare Party (YRP)

• 2.7%: DEM Party

Almost half the electorate sees no party capable of solving the country’s challenges.

Government Loses Economic Credibility

When asked if the government can fix the economy:

• 72.0%: No

• 16.4%: Partially

• 10.8%: Yes

This overwhelming lack of confidence reflects deep frustration with economic management.

Justice System in Crisis

On the question “Do you think Turkey has a justice problem?”:

• 81.5%: Yes

• 15.7%: Partially

• 2.6%: No

In total, 97.2% acknowledge at least some justice problem, underscoring a near-universal crisis of trust.

New Constitution? Public Skeptical

Despite government efforts to promote constitutional change:

• 57.5%: No need

• 37.5%: Yes, needed

• 5%: undecided

The ruling party’s “new constitution” campaign appears out of sync with public priorities.

Gündemar Poll: Erdoğan Trails All Major Rivals

Meanwhile, Gündemar Research conducted a separate survey between 20–26 August 2025 with 2,225 participants across 60 provinces. The results are damaging for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:

• CHP: 35.42%

• AKP: 30.18%

• DEM Party: 8.26%

• Zafer Party: 6.57%

• MHP: 6.32%

• İYİ Party: 4.13%

• YRP: 3.34%

• Others: 2.64%

• Anahtar Party: 1.62%

• TİP: 1.53%

Presidential Matchups:

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 55.29% vs. Erdoğan: 44.71%

• Mansur Yavaş: 58.78% vs. Erdoğan: 41.22%

• Özgür Özel: 51.54% vs. Erdoğan: 48.46%

For the first time, polling consistently shows Erdoğan losing head-to-head against all three main CHP figures.

August Poll Averages: CHP Ahead

According to MDRaporlar’s compilation of 11 major August surveys, the projected parliamentary seat distribution is:

• CHP: 242

• AKP: 234

• DEM: 67

• MHP: 57

A hypothetical İYİ–Zafer alliance slightly shifts numbers but still leaves CHP in first place:

• CHP: 226

• AKP: 223

• DEM: 60

• MHP: 48

• İYİ: 33

• Zafer: 10

Overall, CHP holds a 1.5-point lead over AKP in average national polling.

Why It Matters

• The public sees economy and justice as Turkey’s top crises.

• Nearly half of voters trust no political party to solve problems.

• Confidence in the government’s economic policy has collapsed.

• Erdoğan’s re-election prospects look increasingly fragile, with opposition figures polling well ahead.

As the opposition continues to push for early elections and the government doubles down on constitutional reform and security rhetoric, Turkey’s political volatility shows no signs of easing.