August Inflation at 2.04%: First Clues for Civil Servant and Retiree January Pay Raise

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has released August 2025 inflation data, offering the first glimpse into how much civil servants and retirees can expect to see their salaries rise in January 2026.

• Monthly inflation (CPI 2003=100): 2.04%

• Two-month cumulative inflation (July–August): 10.09%

Based on these preliminary figures, civil servants and retirees are already entitled to a 10.09% pay increase for January. However, this is only a provisional figure, as the final rate will depend on the inflation data from September, October, November, and December.

How the Raise Is Calculated

Civil servant and retiree salary adjustments are determined by two main components:

1. Collective agreement raise

2. Inflation difference

Under the agreement reached between the government and public-sector unions, the following increases were secured:

• 2026: +11% (first half), +7% (second half)

• 2027: +5% (first half), +4% (second half)

If six-month inflation exceeds the scheduled collective agreement raise, the difference is automatically added to salaries as an “inflation adjustment.”

This means that for January 2026, salaries will rise by 11% plus any additional inflation difference from the second half of 2025 (July–December).

Two-Month Picture Already Clear

• July 2025 inflation: 2.06%

• August 2025 inflation: 2.04%

These two figures together produce a cumulative 10.09% increase, already locking in a significant adjustment. With four months of inflation data still to come, the final rate is expected to be higher.

Why It Matters for Civil Servants and Retirees

The January adjustment is one of the most critical events for Türkiye’s 12.2 million retirees and millions of civil servants, as it directly impacts household budgets.

Given ongoing cost-of-living pressures, even modest inflation differences are highly significant for families relying on fixed incomes. Analysts note that the next four months of data will be decisive in shaping final salary adjustments.

The Road Ahead

The upcoming TÜİK announcements will finalize the calculation:

• September 2025 CPI

• October 2025 CPI

• November 2025 CPI

• December 2025 CPI

Once these figures are published, the total six-month inflation rate will be compared to the 11% collective raise. Any excess will be added to the base increase, determining the final January 2026 raise.