ANALYSIS: Is a bigger Marmara quake underway?
istanbul quake
The 6.2 magnitude earthquake in the Sea of Marmara serves as a stark reminder of the region’s seismic risks, being the epicenter of crisscrossing fault lines. The 1999 Marmara and quake and more recently the Hatay-Kahramanmaras tremors were hugely damaging to the economy, infrastructure and human lives. Istanbul is the heart and mind of Turkey, producing an estimated 30% of GDP. All experts agree that eventually a 7.2-7.4 quake will hit Marmara Sea in the vicinity of Istanbul, causing damage up to $300 bn.
As aftershocks continue in an around Istanbul on Saturday, Japanese expert Yoshinori Moriwaki announced the expected magnitude of the Istanbul earthquake and gave a time frame.
Moriwaki emphasized that, due to the ground conditions in Istanbul, seven districts are at risk, and he provided a time frame for the anticipated major Istanbul earthquake.
Speaking on Ekol TV, Moriwaki stated that the fault line has ruptured up to Çınarcık. The expert noted that the rupture along the Northern Boundary Fault has not yet occurred and said, “We still need to wait for the Central Marmara Trough. The 6.2 was a foreshock. An earthquake above magnitude 7 could happen.”
Continuing his statements, Moriwaki added: “Caution is needed in areas with soft ground like Silivri. The grounds of Avcılar, Büyükçekmece, Esenyurt, Zeytinburnu, Bakırköy, and Fatih (all boroughs with large populations) are also soft. We need to wait and see for a week to ten days. There will be aftershocks. In my opinion, it will happen within the next two months,” he said.
What do other experts say?
In the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that struck the Sea of Marmara on April 23, 2025, experts have been analyzing its implications for the region’s seismic future. The quake, centered approximately 40 kilometers southwest of Istanbul, was the strongest in the area in over 25 years, leading to widespread concern among residents and authorities alike.
Divergent Expert Opinions
Seismologists are divided on whether this event was a standalone occurrence or a precursor to a more significant earthquake.
Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener, Director of Boğaziçi University’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, emphasized the inevitability of a major earthquake in the Marmara Sea. He noted that the region experiences around 50 earthquakes daily, and while the exact timing is uncertain, the occurrence of an earthquake above magnitude 7 is a matter of “when” rather than “if” .
Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, a prominent seismologist, highlighted the stress accumulation in the North Anatolian Fault, particularly after recent seismic activities in the Aegean region. He warned that this buildup could potentially trigger significant earthquakes in both the Marmara and Aegean regions .
Prof. Dr. Ziyadin Çakır from Istanbul Technical University cautioned against interpreting smaller tremors as direct precursors to major quakes. He stressed the importance of preparedness and urban transformation, especially in densely populated areas like Istanbul, to mitigate potential damage .
International Perspectives
French geophysicist Prof. Dr. Xavier Le Pichon expressed concerns about the seismic potential of the Marmara region. He anticipates a single earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.6, while acknowledging that some colleagues predict multiple significant events. Le Pichon emphasized the importance of constructing buildings in accordance with seismic regulations to minimize potential damage .
Geophysical Data and Predictions
A study published on arXiv analyzed the slip deficit on the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea, suggesting a significant delay in seismic slip along the fault. The modeling indicates a potential future earthquake with a magnitude ranging between 7.4 and 7.5, based on the accumulated strain and historical seismic activity .
Public Response and Preparedness
The recent earthquake prompted many Istanbul residents to spend the night outdoors, fearing aftershocks. Over 100,000 people utilized temporary shelters provided by the government. While the quake caused no major destruction, it reignited concerns about the city’s vulnerability to seismic events and the necessity for comprehensive preparedness measures.
Conclusion
The 6.2 magnitude earthquake in the Sea of Marmara serves as a stark reminder of the region’s seismic risks. While experts differ on the immediate implications, there is a consensus on the importance of preparedness, strict adherence to building codes, and public awareness to mitigate the potential impact of future earthquakes.
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