Amberin Zaman: What PKK’s disarmament means for Syrian Kurds

The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced on Friday that it held a long-anticipated congress in response to a call by its imprisoned founder, Abdullah Öcalan. The gathering, held from May 5 to 7 in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan, may signal the end of the group’s four-decade-long armed struggle against the Turkish state. The PKK said it would share further details in the coming days.

What does that mean for Syria’s long suffering  Kurds:  Regional expert Amberin Zaman reports “Iraqi Kurdish academic Bayar Dosky commented that the PKK had made a “strategic decision to forgo big gains in Turkey to salvage those in northeastern Syria,” describing the move as a maternal sacrifice”.

Öcalan Orders Disarmament

Öcalan, who founded the PKK in the late 1970s with the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state, reportedly instructed the group on February 27 to end its armed campaign, stating that the struggle had become “redundant.” His directive followed months of covert negotiations with Turkish authorities, initially reported by Al-Monitor.

While the PKK pledged to follow Öcalan’s orders, it had demanded that he be physically present at the congress to direct proceedings. Ankara refused the condition, prompting the group to change course. Observers expect the PKK to announce its transformation from a militant group into a political entity—an effort widely interpreted as a bid to remove its terrorist designation by Turkey, the EU, and the United States.

At the time of publication, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had not issued any public remarks on the development.

Kurdish Leaders Welcome Move as Historic

Kurdish political figures hailed the announcement as a milestone for peace. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party released a statement calling the congress “one of the most critical thresholds in Turkey’s recent history,” adding that it marked not an end but “a new beginning.”

DEM co-chair Pervin Buldan, who has played a key role in relaying messages between Öcalan and PKK leaders, said “historic steps” would likely follow. She told Mezopotamya news agency that there had probably been “technical contact” established between Öcalan and the PKK and predicted an imminent statement from Erdoğan.

Sources close to the process suggested that Öcalan himself may announce the group’s dissolution, though it remains unclear whether this would be via video or through a political intermediary such as the DEM.

History of False Starts and Ongoing Uncertainties

The PKK has declared similar intentions in the past, most notably after Öcalan’s capture in 1999 and again in 2003. Both times, it resumed armed operations under the same name. In addition to being a paramilitary force, the group maintains a transnational network with opaque business operations and a broad diaspora support base.

Unanswered questions include the fate of an estimated 5,000 fighters based in Iraqi Kurdistan, the potential scope of any amnesty, and whether individuals on Turkey’s most-wanted list will benefit. The Turkish public’s reaction remains uncertain, as do risks of internal sabotage.

Buldan herself was injured in a traffic accident in Rome on April 11, prompting speculation about a possible assassination attempt aimed at undermining the peace effort—rumors she dismissed as “inappropriate.”

Past peace attempts have also ended violently. In 2013, three Kurdish activists, including ex-guerrilla Sakine Cansız, were assassinated in Paris under suspicious circumstances. Talks collapsed in 2015 amid mutual accusations between the PKK and the Turkish state.

Erdogan’s Evolving Strategy Toward the Kurds

President Erdoğan, who rose to power in 2002, initially enacted sweeping reforms that raised hopes for Kurdish rights and brought Turkey closer to EU accession talks in 2005. His efforts to curb the influence of the military—long the custodian of Turkey’s harsh anti-Kurdish policies—further paved the way for peace talks.

The failed 2016 coup attempt allowed Erdoğan to consolidate power further, sidelining military hardliners. Today’s developments are seen by some analysts as the final chapter in Erdoğan’s long-standing ambition to resolve the Kurdish conflict on his terms.

His efforts have been aided by his far-right coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli, who has publicly supported the peace initiative—giving it unexpected legitimacy among Turkish nationalists.

Political Divisions Remain

Opposition voices, particularly from the Republican People’s Party (CHP), have questioned the sincerity of the peace process. They argue that Erdoğan’s authoritarian drift undermines prospects for genuine democratization, even if the PKK disbands.

The CHP has gained political ground in recent years, winning key municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 with support from Kurdish voters. That alliance was strengthened in the 2024 general elections, where the CHP defeated Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) nationwide for the first time.

Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s CHP mayor and a key architect of the alliance with DEM, is widely seen as Erdoğan’s most viable rival. His March 19 arrest on contested corruption charges triggered mass protests and was interpreted as a move to neutralize a political threat.

Peace Effort Tied to Erdoğan’s 2028 Ambitions

The latest peace initiative is seen as part of Erdoğan’s broader political calculus. Analysts suggest he is attempting to fracture the opposition alliance by drawing DEM into supporting constitutional reforms that would enable him to run for a third term in 2028.

Branded “Terror-Free Turkey” by the government, the initiative is being framed as a national security measure rather than a concession. Officials insist that no formal steps will be taken until the PKK is fully disarmed and disbanded.

Still, sources indicate that Öcalan was promised improved prison conditions. Furthermore, an amnesty package reportedly under review could free up to 50,000 political prisoners, many of them elderly or ill Kurds. A second round may include high-profile detainees such as former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş, imprisoned since 2016 on disputed terrorism charges.

Syria’s Kurds to Gain from PKK Shift

One of the most immediate outcomes of Öcalan’s call has been a sharp decline in Turkish attacks against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Ankara also refrained from interfering as its Syrian ally, President Ahmad al-Sharaa, signed a landmark agreement with SDF commander Mazlum Kobane on March 10.

Iraqi Kurdish academic Bayar Dosky commented that the PKK had made a “strategic decision to forgo big gains in Turkey to salvage those in northeastern Syria,” describing the move as a maternal sacrifice.

Roj Girasun, co-founder of Diyarbakır-based research firm RAWEST, said Turkey has “de facto accepted Kurdish autonomy in Syria” and noted that Kurds have now abandoned outdated violent methods in pursuit of their democratic rights.

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