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Alaattin Aktaş: TÜİK Manipulates Inflation Data, Rent Calculations Under Fire

inflation-cheating

Turkey’s inflation crisis is not only about persistently high prices but also the inability—or unwillingness—to measure it accurately, says veteran economics columnist Alaattin Aktaş.

In a recent analysis, Aktaş criticized the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for manipulating inflation data by using unrealistic rent values. This, he argues, masks the true extent of inflation and distorts the Consumer Price Index (CPI), deepening public distrust.

“The average Turkish citizen no longer believes the official numbers—regardless of the rate reported. This isn’t prejudice; it’s the result of a growing credibility gap,” Aktaş writes.

📉 The Rent Calculation Controversy

 

One of the most problematic components in TÜİK’s CPI is rent. While nearly 28% of Turkey’s population are renters, Aktaş highlights that TÜİK reports the national average monthly rent as ₺9,978 as of April—a figure he calls implausibly low.

“You can find rents below this amount, yes. But to claim this is the national average? Absolutely not.”

Aktaş then breaks down the flaws in TÜİK’s inflation model using seven critical questions:

❓ Key Issues Raised by Aktaş:

  1. Is ₺10,000 a realistic national average for rent?
    No—especially in large cities like Istanbul, where average rents easily surpass ₺20,000.

  2. Does 6.8% rent weight in the CPI reflect reality?
    With 28% of the population renting, a 6.8% weight suggests renters spend only 24% of their income on rent—an unrealistically low figure.

  3. What would renters’ monthly expenditure be based on TÜİK’s numbers?
    If rent is ₺10,000 and accounts for 24% of expenses, monthly income must be around ₺42,000—an unlikely average.

  4. What if rent is actually ₺20,000 in cities like Istanbul?
    This would imply monthly incomes near ₺82,000–₺84,000, pushing CPI rent weights far beyond 6.8%.

  5. What should the real weight of rent in the CPI be?
    Aktaş argues it should be closer to 15–25%, not 6.8%.

  6. If rent had a higher weight, which components would be reduced—and what would inflation look like?

  7. What is the real impact of rent inflation on CPI?
    In the last 12 months, rent prices rose 89%, while overall CPI increased 37.86%. If rent had a realistic weight, the CPI would likely be much higher.

🧮 How TÜİK Calculates Rent

Aktaş also explains TÜİK’s defense: The agency tracks rent prices in a fixed set of residences. When tenants change or units are demolished, the properties are replaced in the sample. However, new lease prices—which often jump dramatically—are not fully reflected, skewing the index downward.

This opaque and outdated methodology, Aktaş argues, allows TÜİK to systematically understate inflation—especially in the housing component.

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